Habitat suitability models are useful to understand species distribution and to guide management and conservation strategies. The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been extirpated from most of its historic range in Pakistan primarily due to its impact on livestock and livelihoods. We used non-invasive survey data from camera traps and genetic sampling to develop a habitat suitability model for C. lupus in northern Pakistan and to explore the extent of connectivity among populations. We detected suitable habitat of grey wolf using a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ver. 3.4.0) and identified suitable movement corridors using the Circuitscape 4.0 tool. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances, as seen from the values of area under curve (0.971±0.002) and true skill statistics (0.886±0.021). The main predictors for habitat suitability for C. lupus were distances to road, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and distance to river. The model predicted ca. 23,129 km2 of suitable areas for wolf in Pakistan, with much of suitable habitat in remote and inaccessible areas that appeared to be well connected through vulnerable movement corridors. These movement corridors suggest that potentially the wolf range can expand in Pakistan’s Northern Areas. However, managing protected areas with stringent restrictions is challenging in northern Pakistan, in part due to heavy dependence of people on natural resources. The habitat suitability map provided by this study can inform future management strategies by helping authorities to identify key conservation areas.
Fire is a major disturbance that affects ecological communities, and when fire events increase in frequency or extent, they may jeopardise biodiversity. Although long-term studies are irreplaceable to understand how biological communities respond to wildfires, a rapid, efficient assessment of the consequences of wildfire is paramount to inform habitat management and restoration. Although Species Distribution Models (SDMs) may be applied to achieve this goal, they have not yet been used in that way. In summer 2017, during an extended drought that affected Italy, a severe wildfire occurred in the Vesuvius National Park (southern Italy). We applied SDMs to assess how much potential habitat was lost by the 12 bat species occurring in the area because of the wildfire, and whether habitat fragmentation increased following the event. Our analysis supported the hypotheses we tested (i.e. that the fire event potentially affected all species through habitat reduction and fragmentation) and that the bat species potentially most affected were those adapted to foraging in cluttered habitat (forest). We show that SDMs are a valuable tool for a first, rapid assessment of the effects of large-scale wildfires, and that they may help identify the areas that need to be monitored for animal activity and phenology, and to assist in saving human and financial resources.
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