As aves são afetadas de diversas formas pelas atividades antrópicas, sendo a destruição dos habitats a principal causadora do desequilíbrio. Um fato pouco conhecido, mas extremamente relevante, é a perda desses indivíduos por colisão em estruturas transparentes oriundas de fachadas, painéis ou muros de vidro. O presente trabalho teve por objetivo verificar a ocorrência de choque mecânico de aves em residências com muros de vidro no município litorâneo de Balneário Rincão, Santa Catarina, de modo a avaliar as condições das ocorrências em relação as características físicas da ave, do muro e do entorno, durante 12 meses de pesquisa. No decorrer do projeto foram amostradas, entre coletas e registros fotográficos, um total de 110 carcaças decorrentes das colisões em estruturas de vidro, distribuídas em 12 espécies e 10 famílias, sendo 21 indivíduos não identificados.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the seasonal and spatial variations in the statistical descriptors of the Markov chain model as well as the expected values of the length of dry and wet days and to estimate the probability of dry and rainy sequences in the state of Santa Catarina. Design/methodology/approach Daily rainfall data from 1970 to 2013 of five rainfall stations in the state of Santa Catarina were used. To model the sequence of dry and wet days, the first order of the Markov chain was used. The statistical descriptors of the Markov model were evaluated, as well as the expected values of the length of dry and wet days and the number of dry and rainy days for each month. Along with geometric distribution, the probability of occurrence of sequences of dry and rainy days was determined. The adherence of the data to geometric distribution was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Findings The results showed that there is a seasonal and spatial variation in Markov model descriptors and also in the duration of the dry and rainy periods. These variations may be related to the mechanisms responsible for the formation and distribution of rainfall in the state, such as the air masses and relief. The Lages station, located in the Plateau of Santa Catarina, had the highest P00 values, reflecting more stable conditions of the atmosphere. In autumn and winter, no marked differences were found between the coastal stations and west of the state. The geometric distribution was adequate for estimating the probability of dry and rainy days. Originality/value Although some work has already been carried out on the modeling of the Markov chain in the state of Santa Catarina, this study was found to be more complete with the use of various statistical descriptors of the model and its application in estimating the duration of the cycles of dry and wet periods and the number of rainy days in the period.
RESUMOEste trabalho teve como objetivo realizar a modelagem matemática da sequência de dias secos e de dias chuvosos de Içara, Santa Catarina. Foram utilizados os dados da Estação Pluviométrica da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) localizada no município de Içara, sul de Santa Catarina (código 02849022, latitude 28°43'18"S, longitude 49º18'12"W). Foram usados os dados diários de 1978 a 2013. Foram determinadas as matrizes de probabilidade de transição entre dias secos e chuvosos do modelo cadeia de Markov de primeira ordem, e dois estados (secos e chuvosos). Neste trabalho adotou-se como critério de dias secos os valores de precipitação diária inferior a 3,0 mm. Para estimar a sequência de dias secos e chuvosos foi utilizada a distribuição geométrica. A aderência das séries de dias secos e chuvosos a distribuição geométrica foi avaliada pelo teste de KolmogorovSmirnov ao nível de significância de 5%. Os resultados mostraram que existe variação sazonal nos parâmetros da distribuição. Também foi observado que a distribuição geométrica pode ser usada na estimativa da probabilidade de ocorrência dos dias secos e de dias chuvosos consecutivos. Palavras-chave: cadeias de Markov; dias secos; probabilidade. ABSTRACTThis work had the objective of performing the mathematical modeling of the sequence of dry days and rainy days of Içara, Santa Catarina. Data from the Pluviometric Station of the National Water Agency (ANA) located in the municipality of Içara, south of Santa Catarina (code 02849022, latitude 28°43'18"S, longitude 49º18'12" W) were used. The daily data from 1978 to 2013 were used. The transition probability between dry and rainy days of the first-order Markov chain model and two states (dry and rainy) were determined. In this work, the values of daily precipitation lower than 3.0 mm were adopted as criterion of dry days. To estimate the sequence of dry and rainy days the geometric distribution was used. The adherence of the series of dry and rainy days to the geometric distribution was evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The results showed that there is seasonal variation in the distribution parameters. It was also observed that the geometric distribution can be used to estimate the probability of occurrence of dry days and consecutive rainy days
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