This is the first controlled study to show that assessing applicants' non-cognitive and cognitive abilities makes it possible to select students whose dropout rate will be lower than that of students admitted by lottery. The dropout rate in our overall cohort was 2.6 times lower in the selected group.

The lower dropout rate of selected students is related to both self-selection of participants before the start of the selection procedure and the academic part of the selection procedure. The higher clerkship GPA of selected students is almost exclusively related to the non-academic selection criteria.

OBJECTIVES A recent controlled study by our group showed that the dropout rate in the first 2 years of study of medical students selected for entry by the assessment of a combination of non-cognitive and cognitive abilities was 2.6 times lower than that of a control group of students admitted by lottery. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of these two groups in the clinical phase. RESULTS Selected students obtained a significantly higher mean grade during their first five clerkships than lottery-admitted students (mean ± standard error [SE] 7.95 ± 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.90-8.00 versus mean ± SE 7.84 ± 0.02, 95% CI 7.81-7.87; p < 0.001). This difference reflected the fact that selected students achieved a grade of ‡ 8.0 1.5 times more often than lottery-admitted students. An analysis of all mean grades awarded on 10 clerkships revealed the same results. Moreover, the longer follow-up period over the clerkships showed that the relative risk for dropout was twice as low in the selected student group as in the lottery-admitted student group. CONCLUSIONSThe selected group received significantly higher mean grades on their first five clerkships, which could not be attributed to factors other than the selection procedure. Although the risk for dropout before the clinical phase increased somewhat in both groups, the actual dropout rate proved to be twice as low in the selected group.