Background Preterm birth is the leading cause of child mortality globally, with many survivors experiencing long-term adverse consequences. Preliminary evidence suggests that numbers of preterm births greatly reduced following implementation of policy measures aimed at mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to study the impact of the COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in the Netherlands in a stepwise fashion on March 9, March 15, and March 23, 2020, on the incidence of preterm birth.Methods We used a national quasi-experimental difference-in-regression-discontinuity approach. We used data from the neonatal dried blood spot screening programme (2010−20) cross-validated against national perinatal registry data. Stratified analyses were done according to gestational age subgroups, and sensitivity analyses were done to assess robustness of the findings. We explored potential effect modification by neighbourhood socioeconomic status, sex, and small-for-gestational-age status. FindingsData on 1 599 547 singleton neonates were available, including 56 720 births that occurred after implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures on March 9, 2020. Consistent reductions in the incidence of preterm birth were seen across various time windows surrounding March 9 (± 2 months [n=531 823] odds ratio [OR] 0•77, 95% CI 0•66-0•91, p=0•0026; ± 3 months [n=796 531] OR 0•85, 0•73-0•98, p=0•028; ± 4 months [n=1 066 872] OR 0•84, 0•73-0•97, p=0•023). Decreases in incidence observed following the March 15 measures were of smaller magnitude, but not statistically significant. No changes were observed after March 23. Reductions in the incidence of preterm births after March 9 were consistent across gestational age strata and robust in sensitivity analyses. They appeared confined to neighbourhoods of high socioeconomic status, but effect modification was not statistically significant.Interpretation In this national quasi-experimental study, initial implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures was associated with a substantial reduction in the incidence of preterm births in the following months, in agreement with preliminary observations elsewhere. Integration of comparable data from across the globe is needed to further substantiate these findings and start exploring underlying mechanisms.

Loes C. M. Bertens and colleagues survey the published diagnostic research literature for use of expert panels to define the reference standard, characterize components and missing information, and recommend elements that should be reported in diagnostic studies. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

PurposePrediction models for exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are scarce. Our aim was to develop and validate a new model to predict exacerbations in patients with COPD.Patients and methodsThe derivation cohort consisted of patients aged 65 years or over, with a COPD diagnosis, who were followed up over 24 months. The external validation cohort consisted of another cohort of COPD patients, aged 50 years or over. Exacerbations of COPD were defined as symptomatic deterioration requiring pulsed oral steroid use or hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis including backward selection and shrinkage were used to develop the final model and to adjust for overfitting. The adjusted regression coefficients were applied in the validation cohort to assess calibration of the predictions and calculate changes in discrimination applying C-statistics.ResultsThe derivation and validation cohort consisted of 240 and 793 patients with COPD, of whom 29% and 28%, respectively, experienced an exacerbation during follow-up. The final model included four easily assessable variables: exacerbations in the previous year, pack years of smoking, level of obstruction, and history of vascular disease, with a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.82). Predictions were well calibrated in the validation cohort, with a small loss in discrimination potential (C-statistic 0.66 [95% CI 0.61–0.71]).ConclusionOur newly developed prediction model can help clinicians to predict the risk of future exacerbations in individual patients with COPD, including those with mild disease.

Our results should raise concerns about the existing social inequalities in dental caries and should encourage development of dental caries prevention strategies. New knowledge about the distribution of oral health inequalities between districts should be used to target the right audience for these strategies.

No abstract

dyspnoea is very common in older people, but estimates vary considerably between studies. Only one study describes the underlying causes.

Background: Reduced exercise tolerance and dyspnea are common in older people, and heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are the main causes. We want to determine the prevalence of previously unrecognized HF, COPD, and other chronic diseases in frail older people using a nearhome targeted screening strategy.Methods: Community-dwelling frail persons aged >65 years underwent a 2-step screening strategy. First, they received a questionnaire inquiring about dyspnea and exercise tolerance. Those with exercise intolerance and/or dyspnea were invited to visit their primary care physician's office for a screening program, including medical history taking, physical examination, blood tests, electrocardiography, spirometry, and echocardiography. The final diagnosis of every patient was determined by a panel consisting of 3 physicians.

BackgroundGeographical inequalities in perinatal health and child welfare require attention. To improve the identification, and care, of mothers and young children at risk of adverse health outcomes, the HP4All-2 program was developed. The program consists of three studies, focusing on creating a continuum for risk selection and tailored care pathways from preconception and antenatal care towards 1) postpartum care, 2) early childhood care, as well as 3) interconception care. The program has been implemented in ten municipalities in the Netherlands, aiming to target communities with a relatively disadvantageous position with regard to perinatal and child health outcomes. To delineate the position of the ten participating municipalities, we present municipal and regional differences in the prevalence of perinatal mortality, perinatal morbidity, children living in deprived neighbourhoods, and children living in families on welfare.MethodsData on all singleton births in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014 were analysed for the prevalence of perinatal mortality and morbidity. In addition, national data on children living in deprived neighbourhoods and children living in families on welfare between 2009 and 2012 were analysed. The prevalence of these outcomes were calculated and ranked for 62 geographical areas, the 50 largest municipalities and the 12 provinces, to determine the position of the municipalities that participate in HP4All-2.ResultsConsiderable geographical differences were present for all four outcomes. The municipalities that participate in HP4All-2 are among the 25 municipalities with the highest prevalence of perinatal mortality, perinatal morbidity, children living in deprived neighbourhoods, or children in families on welfare.ConclusionThis study illustrates geographical differences in perinatal health and/or child welfare outcomes and demonstrates that the HP4All-2 program targets municipalities with a relative unfavourable position. By targeting these municipalities, the program is expected to contribute most to improving the care for young children and their mothers at risk, and hence to reducing their risks and health inequalities.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-017-1425-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.