The Chi-Chi earthquake provides dramatic evidence of the damaging effects of surface ground deformation to buildings, lifelines, and other facilities. Much of the building damage is associated with surface faulting and folding along the Chelungpu thrust fault. Our detailed surveying at representative sites along the fault shows that the rupture commonly is a relatively simple 1-to 4-m-high scarp with minor hanging-wall deformation and localized (but severe) uplift, folding, and graben formation along the scarp crest. For individual scarps, the width of deformation is about 10 to 20 times the net vertical displacement. Distributed secondary faulting and folding on the hanging wall occurred as much as 350 m from the primary fault. Near the northern end of the rupture, growth of a pre-existing 1-km-wide late Quaternary anticline produced severe ground rupture along multiple thrusts and backthrusts but only minor tilting between fault strands.The pattern of building damage coincides with the pattern of geologic deformation, with severe damage along large fault scarps and lesser but still significant damage attributable to distributed secondary surface deformation on the hanging wall. Rupture-related building damage on the footwall occurred next to the prerupture fault trace, where the hanging wall bulldozed onto the footwall. The width of this damage zone is related to the local horizontal shortening along the fault and generally is less than 10 m. Building zonation along reverse faults should account for this pattern of surface deformation. In addition, buildings with massive foundations locally influenced the style and location of near-surface deformation, producing variations in fault strike or accentuated secondary deformation on the hanging wall.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.*This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third party's use or the results of such use, of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed in this report, or represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights. The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily those of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
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