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Aim Palms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neotropics. Here, we estimated the impacts of future climate change on phylogenetic diversity (PD) of Neotropical palms under varying climatic and dispersal scenarios, assessed the effectiveness of the established network of protected areas (PAs) for conserving palms PD today and in 2070, and identified priority areas for the conservation of palm species and their evolutionary history in the face of climate change. Location Neotropics. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of 367 species in the present and for 2070 based on two greenhouse gas emission and two dispersal scenarios. We calculated Faith's PD within each five arc‐minute grid cell to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs relative to null models and used phylogenetic spatial prioritisation analysis to detect priority areas. Results We found that even under the most optimistic climatic and dispersal scenarios, the established network of PAs performed poorly in safeguarding palms PD under both current conditions and those projected for 2070. Significant losses in PD inside PAs are expected under future climate conditions, especially if species are unable to disperse to suitable areas. Nevertheless, a modest and strategic increase in the number of PAs could considerably improve the protection of palms PD in the present and 2070. Main conclusions The PD of Neotropical palms is poorly represented within the established network of PAs, at both present and in 2070. A higher realised dispersal rates would diminish PD losses inside the network of PAs. The conservation of palm PD can be improved through the expansion of PAs in strategic regions such as the upper portion of the Amazon Basin, Tropical Andes and Mesoamerica.

Community ecologists seek to understand the processes acting on community assembly and the importance of species ecological differences to the coexistence of organisms. Here we investigated trait distribution patterns in two contrasting vegetation types, how the inclusion of intraspecific variability improves our ability to understand trait-based assembly, and if soil features predict the occurrence of nonrandom trait distribution patterns. We conducted our study at Emas National Park, Goiás, Brazil. We used a null model approach to investigate trait distribution patterns and a model selection approach to quantify soil features important in structuring assemblages. In savanna, we detected trait convergence at individual and species level (evidence of environmental filters) favoring plants with resource conservation strategies. In forests, however, trait dispersion at individual level equal to a random expectation corroborated a premise of neutral theory (individuals ecological equivalence). Nevertheless, at species level, we found convergence (seed mass) and divergence (height), reflecting distinct strategies related to light capture and resource use. Therefore, including intraspecific trait variability did not improve the detection of non-random trait distribution patterns. Furthermore, the influence of soil features on trait patterns was different between savanna and forest. There was a tendency for niche differentiation toward more fertile and clayey soils, but the relative importance of soil factors in assembling communities could not be generalized for savannas and dry forests.

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