Background Changeful seasonal influenza activity in subtropical areas such as Taiwan causes problems in epidemic preparedness. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control has maintained real-time national influenza surveillance systems since 2004. Except for timely monitoring, epidemic forecasting using the national influenza surveillance data can provide pivotal information for public health response. Objective We aimed to develop predictive models using machine learning to provide real-time influenza-like illness forecasts. Methods Using surveillance data of influenza-like illness visits from emergency departments (from the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance System), outpatient departments (from the National Health Insurance database), and the records of patients with severe influenza with complications (from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System), we developed 4 machine learning models (autoregressive integrated moving average, random forest, support vector regression, and extreme gradient boosting) to produce weekly influenza-like illness predictions for a given week and 3 subsequent weeks. We established a framework of the machine learning models and used an ensemble approach called stacking to integrate these predictions. We trained the models using historical data from 2008-2014. We evaluated their predictive ability during 2015-2017 for each of the 4-week time periods using Pearson correlation, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and hit rate of trend prediction. A dashboard website was built to visualize the forecasts, and the results of real-world implementation of this forecasting framework in 2018 were evaluated using the same metrics. Results All models could accurately predict the timing and magnitudes of the seasonal peaks in the then-current week (nowcast) (ρ=0.802-0.965; MAPE: 5.2%-9.2%; hit rate: 0.577-0.756), 1-week (ρ=0.803-0.918; MAPE: 8.3%-11.8%; hit rate: 0.643-0.747), 2-week (ρ=0.783-0.867; MAPE: 10.1%-15.3%; hit rate: 0.669-0.734), and 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.676-0.801; MAPE: 12.0%-18.9%; hit rate: 0.643-0.786), especially the ensemble model. In real-world implementation in 2018, the forecasting performance was still accurate in nowcasts (ρ=0.875-0.969; MAPE: 5.3%-8.0%; hit rate: 0.582-0.782) and remained satisfactory in 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.721-0.908; MAPE: 7.6%-13.5%; hit rate: 0.596-0.904). Conclusions This machine learning and ensemble approach can make accurate, real-time influenza-like illness forecasts for a 4-week period, and thus, facilitate decision making.
IMPORTANCE Decades of effort have been devoted to establishing an automated microscopic diagnosis of malaria, but there are challenges in achieving expert-level performance in real-world clinical settings because publicly available annotated data for benchmark and validation are required. OBJECTIVE To assess an expert-level malaria detection algorithm using a publicly available benchmark image data set. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this diagnostic study, clinically validated malaria image data sets, the Taiwan Images for Malaria Eradication (TIME), were created by digitizing thin blood smears acquired from patients with malaria selected from the biobank of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2018. These smear images were annotated by 4 clinical laboratory scientists who worked in medical centers in Taiwan and trained for malaria microscopic diagnosis at the national reference laboratory of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. With TIME, a convolutional neural network-based object detection algorithm was developed for identification of malaria-infected red blood cells. A diagnostic challenge using another independent data set within TIME was performed to compare the algorithm performance against that of human experts as clinical validation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Performance on detecting Plasmodium falciparum-infected blood cells was measured by average precision, and performance on detecting P falciparum infection at the image level was measured using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS The TIME data sets contained 8145 images of 36 blood smears from patients with suspected malaria (30 P falciparum-positive and 6 P falciparum-negative smears) that had reliable annotations. For clinical validation, the average precision was 0.885 for detecting P falciparuminfected blood cells and 0.838 for ring form. For detecting P falciparum infection on blood smear images, the algorithm had expert-level performance (
When the supercritical boiler operates, it's easy to lead the metal temperature of outlet of the vertical water-cooling wall tube to fluctuate considerably, and even makes the pipe wall overheating and fatigue damage on adjusting the running parameters continually. With studying the sensitivity of the running parameters for the metal temperature of vertical water wall tube, the running parameters could be adjusted to control the fluctuate range of the outlet metal temperature under different burner offset angles. The LS-SVM (Least Square Support Vector Machines) was proposed to construct a model for the outlet metal temperature, based on this model, the relation between the running parameters and the outlet metal temperature was analyzed under different burner offset angles. So the sensitivity of the running parameters for outlet metal temperature could be obtained under different burner offset angles. There is instructional meaning exists in the result for the control and the adjusting, which are on the outlet metal temperature of vertical water wall tube in supercritical boiler. Key wordssupercritical boiler; temperature of vertical water wall; burner offset angles; least square support vector machines; sensitivity analysis
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