Ecosystem service assessments facilitate the valuation of nature and support decision-making. Ecosystem services are connected to climate; however, ecosystem service values affected by climate change remain unclear. We mapped global ecosystem service values totaling ∼1.3 trillion international dollars for 2005. Transitions in Köppen-Geiger climate classes projected with General Circulation Models under the four IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were modeled providing 20 climate scenarios. The mapped global ecosystem service values were combined with the 20 climate scenarios in order to identify where and how much of the global ecosystem service value is within a climate class transition. By 2050, 252-375 billion international dollars of ecosystem service value (20%-30% of total value) are in a Köppen-Geiger climate transition for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. In RCP 2.6, the 2015 Paris Agreement carbon emission scenario target, Köppen-Geiger climate transitions stabilize after 2050. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, ecosystem service values amounting to 467-632 billion international dollars (37%-50% of total value) are in a Köppen-Geiger climate transition by 2085. These results provide an inclusive global overview of climate change impact on evaluated ecosystem services that affect populations and economies.
In this study, Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation and the least cost path analysis were applied to find the optimal by-pass road alignment in the Tlokweng Planning Area in Botswana. One-At-a-Time sensitivity analysis and the statistical test for zero proportion were used to investigate the robustness of the entire model. Four alternative bypass roads were produced stressing economic, environmental, and social suitability as well as trade-offs between the groups. The results showed that the social alternative performs best. Sensitivity analysis and statistical test for zero proportion revealed four criteria as sensitive.
Understanding the distribution and characterization of natural and non-natural materials on the surface and near-subsurface is important for the development of infrastructure projects. This may be a challenge in highly urbanized areas, where outcrops are scarce, and anthropogenic activities have altered the morphological expression of the landscape. This study tests the integration of ground-penetrating radar (GPR), borehole drilling, aerial imagery, geological mapping, and aerial laser scanning as complementary mapping tools for determining the stratigraphy of glacial and post-glacial Quaternary sediments, the depth to the bedrock, and the distribution of anthropogenic material in Mosvatnet, a lake in Stavanger, Norway. The integration proved to be efficient and enabled the generation of a 3D holistic model, which provided a broad understanding of the subsurface geology and the induced anthropogenic changes in the area through time. Bedrock, till, fluvioglacial, and lacustrine geological units were modeled. Accumulations of post-glacial organic matter were mapped, and the distribution of non-natural infill material was determined. The interpreted dataset suggests that the eastern shoreline of Mosvatnet has artificially prograded about one hundred meters westward since the 1930s and the elevation of the corresponding area has increased by about ten meters relative to the lake level.
<p>Ecosystem service valuation may be a relevant method for assisting policy makers in environmental related decisions. However, a number of problematic aspects of the calculations, including consistency of economy (e.g., purchasing price, production price, perceived value) and determining which ecosystem subservices to include (e.g. include disservices or only beneficial services), contribute to uncertainty in the final valuations. However, ecosystem service valuations currently lack 1) a quantification of total uncertainty in ecosystem service values as a result of the uncertainties in the subservices, and 2) an analysis of the relative sensitivity of total ecosystem service values to uncertainties in various subservices. &#160;</p><p>In a previous study, we have computed a spatial distribution of global ecosystem services by disaggregating production values over the spatial existence of each subservice by country. Nineteen subservices arranged under nine services from four categories were calculated totalling approximately 1.3 trillion international dollars for 2005. Our current study aims to perform an error propagation analysis and a sensitivity analysis of the Food Service. The Food Service, which is comprised of nine subservices, accounts for 99.8% of the total global ecosystem service value. It is extremely important to understand the reliability of the valuation of this service because it greatly contributes and overshadows the other services.</p><p>Hereto, the cattle and sheep indicators in the Livestock Subservice and the apple orchard indicator in the Fruit Subservice are analyzed. The Livestock Subservice accounts for the majority of the Food Service and is comprised of cattle, sheep, buffalo, poultry, pig, and goat. The cattle and sheep indicators have three main sources of uncertainty: the animal weight, the production value, and the number of animals per hectare for meat versus the number of animals for dairy use. The uncertainty in animal weight varies considerably by species and is important because the production value is the international dollar per live-weight ton. The production values are published with designations as either a direct calculation or an estimated figure. In the case of animal population data, RMSE were provided as part of the data release.</p><p>The Fruit Subservice is the fourth largest contributor to the total Food Subservice value. It was chosen because the input data sets are different than the top three contributors to the Food Subservice (i.e. Livestock, Dairy, and Crops). The apple orchard indicator has two main sources of uncertainty: the production value and the production area. The uncertainty in the production values are qualified as unofficial figures by the data producer, while the production area followed agricultural land use, rather than mapped apple orchards.</p><p>Both an error propagation analysis of the defined uncertainties and a sensitivity analysis provide insight into the robustness into the computed ecosystem service assessment. Presenting and understanding uncertainty and sensitivity of ecosystem service assessments is consequential for incorporating ecosystem service assessments into climate change mitigation strategies.</p>
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