Hip fracture is a significant public health problem, with associated high morbidity and mortality. Orthopedic surgeons are concerned to improve prognosis and stratify mortality risk after hip fracture surgery. This study established a nomogram that combines the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) with specific laboratory parameters to predict mortality risk after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics. Methods: The records of consecutive patients who underwent hip fracture surgery from January 2015 through May 2020 at one medical center were reviewed for perioperative factors and mortality. Patients with age ≥ 70 years who were diagnosed with intertrochanteric or femoral neck fractures were included. Patients who were diagnosed with pathological fracture, received only conservative treatment or lost to follow-up were excluded. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify risk factors. A nomogram was established with R software and evaluated using concordance (C)-index, area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: In total, 454 patients were included with a mean age of 81.6 years. The mean follow-up and oneyear mortality rate were 37.2 months and 10.4%, respectively. Five identified risk variables for mortality after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics comprised age (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.08; P = 0.003), CCI (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.24-1.54; P = 0.0 0 0), albumin (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.31-2.43; P = 0.0 0 0), sodium (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.18-2.15; P = 0.002) and hemoglobin (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.00; P = 0.02). A nomogram was proposed and evaluated, showing a C-index of 0.76 ± 0.02. The AUCs for 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year mortality predictions were 0.83, 0.79, and 0.77, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA showed good discrimination and clinical usefulness. Conclusion: This novel nomogram for stratifying the mortality risk after hip fracture surgery in geriatrics incorporated age, CCI, serum albumin, sodium, and hemoglobin. Internal validation indicated that the model has good accuracy and usefulness. This nomogram had improved convenience and precision compared with other models. External validation is warranted to confirm its performance.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI), characterized by sudden impairment of kidney function, is an uncommon complication following hip fracture surgery that is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We constructed a nomogram to stratify patients according to risk of AKI after hip fracture surgery to guide clinicians in the implementation of timely interventions. Methods: Patients who received hip fracture surgery from January 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively identified and divided into a training set (n=448, surgery from January 2015 to December 2019) and a validation set (n=200, surgery from January 2020 to December 2021). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for AKI after surgery in the training set. A nomogram was constructed based the risk factors for AKI, and was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The mean age was 82.0±6.22 years-old and the prevalence of post-surgical AKI was 13.3%. Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, the preexistence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cemented surgery and the decrease of hemoglobin on the first day after surgery were identified as independent risk factors of AKI after hip fracture surgery, and a predictive nomogram was established based on the multivariable model. The predictive nomogram had good discrimination ability (training set: AUC: 0.784, 95% CI: 0.720-0.848; validation set: AUC: 0.804, 95% CI: 0.704-0.903), and showed good validation ability and clinical usefulness based on a calibration plot and decision curve analysis. Conclusion: A nomogram that incorporated five risk factors including age, ASA score, preexisting CKD, cemented surgery and the decrease of hemoglobin on the first day after surgery had good predictive performance and discrimination. Use of our results for early stratification and intervention has the potential to improve the outcomes of patients receiving hip fracture surgery. Future large, multicenter cohorts are needed to verify the model's performance.

Purpose To evaluate the relationship between the postoperative Barthel index assessing activities of daily living at discharge and the one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. Methods Patients with hip fracture admitted to Peking University First Hospital from January 2015 to January 2020 were enrolled retrospectively according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Barthel index and other related confounding variables were collected. Logistic regression and Kaplan‒Meier survival curves were constructed to explore the relationship between the postoperative Barthel index at discharge and the one-year mortality of geriatric patients after hip fracture surgery. Results A total of 444 patients with a mean age of 81.61±6.14 years were included. A significant difference was not observed in the preoperative Barthel index at admission between the deceased group and the surviving group (38.90±15.83 vs 36.96±10.74, p =0.446). However, the difference in the postoperative Barthel index at discharge between these two groups was statistically significant (43.08±14.40 vs 53.18±13.43, P<0.001). The multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the postoperative Barthel index at discharge was an independent risk factor for one-year mortality after adjustment for confounding variables (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55–0.98, p˂0.05). The Kaplan‒Meier survival curve showed that patients who had a high Barthel index (≥50) at discharge had a significantly lower mortality in the long term than patients with a low Barthel index (<50) at discharge (P< 0.001). Conclusion The postoperative Barthel index at discharge was independently associated with the one-year mortality of geriatric patients after hip fracture surgery. A higher postoperative Barthel index at discharge indicated a lower mortality after hip fracture surgery. The Barthel index at discharge has the potential to provide essential prognostic information for early risk stratification and directing future care.