The objective is to quantify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment, poverty and inequality in Mexico. The methodology is based on a probit model to identify individuals at risk of employment loss, whose earnings are set to zero in ENIGH 2018 to match changes in employment and earnings observed in between December 2019 and the May 2020 according to ENOE and ETOE surveys, respectively. MEXMOD, Mexico’s microsimulation model, is used to simulate tax-benefit policies based on the pre-COVID and COVID-scenarios. The results show that there was a loss of 12.1 million jobs. Poverty reached 60.16% and extreme poverty reached 29.73%; inequality grew 8.2%. It is recommended to strengthen social policy with extra funding (taxing the rich) to achieve greater redistribution. The limitation is that income distribution is held constant as we do not have ENIGH 2020. The originality is to offer timely measures of poverty and inequality using microsimulation techniques to overcome the lack of data during the pandemic. The research concludes that there are not automatic stabilizers to cope COVID-19 negative effects and cash-transfers are not sufficient to do so.
Más allá de los enfoques que centran los esfuerzos competitivos en la reducción de costos de producción o balanzas comerciales favorables, la literatura reciente sostiene que la competitividad debe ser definida como la habilidad para crear bienestar. De tal manera, este trabajo tiene por objetivo analizar si los niveles de competitividad se reflejan en el bienestar de la población que habita en los municipios de la región Frontera en el Estado de Sonora; para ello, se estima un índice de competitividad municipal con el método de componentes principales y también se utilizan las líneas de
bienestar calculadas por el Coneval (2016). Los resultados muestran que la región
Frontera observó un alto índice de competitividad -como el Estado de Sonora-; sin embargo, la región tiene una mayor proporción de población cuyo ingreso no le
permite alcanzar su bienestar económico y, de igual manera, la región tiene la mayor
proporción de personas con un ingreso que no permite adquirir la canasta alimentaria
para alcanzar su bienestar mínimo, así destine todo su ingreso para tal propósito. En conclusión, igual que el Estado de Sonora la región Frontera tiene un índice de competitividad alto, pero el bienestar de la población regional es menor que el bienestar registrado por la población en el Estado.
We examine inequality on wages in Mexico, by region and gender. Based on social wellbeing theoretical approach (Cowell, 2011), we assign different ethical judgment values to analyze the variation of inequality along the wage distribution. We use a novel index, the Gini-Atkinson, which allows introducing different aversion parameters for both, the Gini and Atkinson indexes. The former, by moving the weighting along the wage distribution and the latter, by introducing an equity principle in the welfare function of wage earners. The empirical application considers only formal wage earners (men and women) in the northern border of Mexico and the rest of the country. Results reveal that the border has lower levels of inequality and gender gaps are smaller with respect to the country as well, but with different incidence between men and women.
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