The notion of personalized medicine demands proper prognostic biomarkers to guide the optimal therapy for an invasive breast cancer patient. However, various risk prediction models based on conventional clinicopathological factors and emergent molecular assays have been frequently limited by either a low strength of prognosis or restricted applicability to specific types of patients. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a strong and general prognosticator. Methods: We observed five large-scale tumor-associated collagen signatures (TACS4-8) obtained by multiphoton microscopy at the invasion front of the breast primary tumor, which contrasted with the three tumor-associated collagen signatures (TACS1-3) discovered by Keely and coworkers at a smaller scale. Highly concordant TACS1-8 classifications were obtained by three independent observers. Using the ridge regression analysis, we obtained a TACS-score for each patient based on the combined TACS1-8 and established a risk prediction model based on the TACS-score. In a blind fashion, consistent retrospective prognosis was obtained from 995 breast cancer patients in both a training cohort ( n = 431) and an internal validation cohort ( n = 300) collected from one clinical center, and in an external validation cohort ( n = 264) collected from a different clinical center. Results: TACS1-8 model alone competed favorably with all reported models in predicting disease-free survival (AUC: 0.838, [0.800-0.872]; 0.827, [0.779-0.868]; 0.807, [0.754-0.853] in the three cohorts) and stratifying low- and high-risk patients (HR 7.032, [4.869-10.158]; 6.846, [4.370-10.726], 4.423, [2.917-6.708]). The combination of these factors with the TACS-score into a nomogram model further improved the prognosis (AUC: 0.865, [0.829-0.896]; 0.861, [0.816-0.898]; 0.854, [0.805-0.894]; HR 7.882, [5.487-11.323]; 9.176, [5.683-14.816], and 5.548, [3.705-8.307]). The nomogram identified 72 of 357 (~20%) patients with unsuccessful 5-year disease-free survival that might have been undertreated postoperatively. Conclusions: The risk prediction model based on TACS1-8 considerably outperforms the contextual clinical model and may thus convince pathologists to pursue a TACS-based breast cancer prognosis. Our methodology identifies a significant portion of patients susceptible to undertreatment (high-risk patients), in contrast to the multigene assays that often strive to mitigate overtreatment. The compatibility of our methodology with standard histology using traditional (non-tissue-microarray) formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue sections could simplify subsequent clinical translation.
Background Collagen fibers play an important role in tumor initiation, progression, and invasion. Our previous research has already shown that large-scale tumor-associated collagen signatures (TACS) are powerful prognostic biomarkers independent of clinicopathological factors in invasive breast cancer. However, they are observed on a macroscale and are more suitable for identifying high-risk patients. It is necessary to investigate the effect of the corresponding microscopic features of TACS so as to more accurately and comprehensively predict the prognosis of breast cancer patients. Methods In this retrospective and multicenter study, we included 942 invasive breast cancer patients in both a training cohort (n = 355) and an internal validation cohort (n = 334) from one clinical center and in an external validation cohort (n = 253) from a different clinical center. TACS corresponding microscopic features (TCMFs) were firstly extracted from multiphoton images for each patient, and then least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied to select the most robust features to build a TCMF-score. Finally, the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the association of TCMF-score with disease-free survival (DFS). Results TCMF-score is significantly associated with DFS in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. After adjusting for clinical variables by multivariate Cox regression analysis, the TCMF-score remains an independent prognostic indicator. Remarkably, the TCMF model performs better than the clinical (CLI) model in the three cohorts and is particularly outstanding in the ER-positive and lower-risk subgroups. By contrast, the TACS model is more suitable for the ER-negative and higher-risk subgroups. When the TACS and TCMF are combined, they could complement each other and perform well in all patients. As expected, the full model (CLI+TCMF+TACS) achieves the best performance (AUC 0.905, [0.873–0.938]; 0.896, [0.860–0.931]; 0.882, [0.840–0.925] in the three cohorts). Conclusion These results demonstrate that the TCMF-score is an independent prognostic factor for breast cancer, and the increased prognostic performance (TCMF+TACS-score) may help us develop more appropriate treatment protocols.
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