The HIV/AIDS cases and proportion in older people are continuously and rapidly increasing in China, especially in males. However, the transmission mechanism is not well understood. This study aims to explore the transmission mechanism of HIV/AIDS and potential ways to prevent or control HIV/AIDS transmission in a city in southwestern China. Data from multiple sources, including HIV/AIDS case reports in 2010–2020, a survey of HIV/AIDS cases in 2020, and sentinel surveillance data of female sex workers (FSWs) in 2016–2020 were analyzed. We explored the transmission mechanism of HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older. In this city, the number of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older increased from 2010 to 2019, and decreased in 2020. The number of male and female cases aged 50 years and older both increased rapidly in 2017–2019, though the number of male cases was larger than that of female. The survey data showed that 84.7% of older male cases reported commercial sexual behavior, among whom 87.7% reported never using condom and 37.6% reported more than 10 times of commercial sexual behaviors in 1 year. In terms of price of sexual behavior, 68.3% of older male cases sought low-tier FSWs among whom the HIV/AIDS positive rate was 5.4% from the sentinel surveillance data. These results suggested HIV transmission between older men and low-tier FSWs through commercial sexual behavior. Among female cases aged 50 years and older, most reported non-marital and non-commercial heterosexual (60.5%) or regular sexual partner (31.4%) transmission, suggesting that they were infected by their spouse/regular sexual partner. Data of matched couples showed that most male cases had both marital sexual behavior and commercial sexual behavior, or acquired HIV through commercial sexual behavior, while most female cases had only marital sexual behavior. Based on these findings, we proposed a transmission mode of that local older male people and FSWs are transmitting bilaterally through commercial sexual behavior, and local older male people are spreading to local older female people through spouse or regular sexual partner route. By studying data from multiple sources, we explored the HIV transmission mode among older people. In the meantime, we found that marital status had a different impact on male and female old people in their sex behaviors.
To compare the epidemiological characteristics of Sichuan Province, other provinces in China and the world epidemic trends by analyzing the prevalence and length of epidemic time. Visualizing the development and changes of epidemic situation by layer through maps. 539 cases were reported in Sichuan Province, with the incidence rate of 0.6462 / 100,000. The closer to Hubei, the heavier the epidemic. Eight weeks after Wuhan lockdown, all became better. The longest epidemic length in city level was 53 days, median 23 days. It was released quickly in the 1st month, and accelerated in the 2ed month (three times of 1st month). Most countries outside China began to rise rapidly 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries was earlier than USA. Most countries now entered the second phase of the rise. Adopting positive isolation and control measures in key 8 weeks will help us to fight the epidemic.
Background: The COVID-19 spread worldwide quickly. Exploring the epidemiological characteristics could provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas where COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly.Methods: The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and length of time from the first reported case to the end of the local cases (i.e., non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial (geographical) and temporal classification and visualization of the development and changes of the epidemic situation by layers through maps.Results: In the first wave, a total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan, with an incidence rate of 0.6462/100,000. The closer to Hubei the population centres were, the more pronounced the epidemic was. The peak in Sichuan Province occurred in the second week. Eight weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, the health crisis had eased. The longest epidemic length at the city level in China (except Wuhan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) was 53 days, with a median of 23 days. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of China showed positive spatial correlation (Moran's Index >0, p<0.05). Most countries outside China began to experience a rapid rise in infection rates 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries experienced that rise earlier than the USA. The pandemic in Germany, Spain, Italy, and China took 28, 29, 34, and 18 days, respectively, to reach the peak of daily infections, after their daily increase of up to 20 cases. During this time, countries in the African region and Southeast Asian region were at an early stage of infections, those in the Eastern Mediterranean region and region of the Americas were in a rapid growth phase.Conclusions: After the closure of the outbreak city, appropriate isolation and control measures in the next 8 weeks were key to control the outbreak, which reduced the peak value and length of the outbreak. Some countries with improved epidemic situations need to develop a continuous "local strategy at entry checkpoints" to to fend off imported COVID-19.
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