Global socio-economic trends require a dramatic acceleration of transport links. The creation of new high-speed transport systems is an urgent task, the success of the solution of which largely determines the improvement of the quality of life and the trade and economic development of states, regions, cities. The main strategic goal of the development of the transport system is to meet the needs of society, taking into account the value of time and using innovative factors focused on the effective development of a competitive environment, offering quality transport services based on developed infrastructure, and a high level of application of innovative techniques and technologies. The Russian railways as a transport system need a good restructuring due to the fact that its qualitative characteristics, especially infrastructure, are not able to efficiently solve the existing problems of the global economy. The aim of this article is to study perspective trends for the development of the railway sector in the context of digitalization of the economy.
This article is devoted to the study of improving the use of expert assessments for risk analysis, affecting the effectiveness of the implementation of a comprehensive investment project in the global instability of the economic space. The existing methods of expert assessments and Monte-Carlo simulation methods used to identify and assess the risks of investment projects are described. A systematic analysis of the main risks of investment projects in the context of globalization and risk management methods was carried out. The author’s classification of risks of investment projects using the criteria of economic efficiency has been developed. An approach to risk analysis, affecting the effectiveness of the implementation of complex investment projects based on existing methods using the concept of the “reduced” random factor, is proposed. This approach is used to analyse project implementation risks in the conditions of market instability with the development of recommendations for managing the main project risks. The author’s risk classification of investment projects is important at the stage of analysing risks arising from the study of sales markets, as well as during the management decision-making process, which minimizes the possible adverse impact on an organization, including losses caused by random events. The proposed approach can be applied to the analysis, express-analysis and risk management of long-term complex investment projects in the conditions of global instability of the economic space.
Research background: The coming period of the world economy coming out of the pandemic crisis will seriously change the situation in the cargo and passenger segment. According to the assessment of the current situation, in the global market there is a violation of the usual ties between producers and consumers, an imbalance in transport flows associated with changes in demand. At the same time, in a crisis, rail transport is the main tool, since a significant amount of anti-epidemic protective equipment from China was transported by trains. It is clear that in the near future the dynamics of the market depends, first of all, on the further development of events and measures of state support for industries and businesses. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this research is to score the factors of the post-crisis state of transport sector: alterations in the gravity of commodity markets, modifications of valuable preferences assessment of the shipper and the passenger, that change the business model of transport companies. Methods: Standard methods of scientific research are used: theoretical and experimental; complex methods of analysis and evaluation of business models: a complex scheme for developing a business model, a canvas and a conceptual scheme of a business model; methods of qualitative data analysis. Findings & Value added: Factors changing the transport business model are systematized. The research estimates a change probability in the gravity of commodity markets towards Asian countries, the consequences of the influence of digital technology on the efficiency of the transport business and the shift in the value of transport services in the line of high speeds. It shows the impact of the post-pandemic economy, which has formed new habits, passenger behavior on passenger companies’ operations. The research justified crisis effects resulting in the deterioration of the competition in the transport markets.
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