No abstract

A prime aim of invasion biology is to predict which species will become invasive, but retrospective analyses have so far failed to develop robust generalizations. This is because many biological, environmental, and anthropogenic factors interact to determine the distribution of invasive species. However, in this paper we also argue that many analyses of invasiveness have been flawed by not considering several fundamental issues: (1) the range size of an invasive species depends on how much time it has had to spread (its residence time); (2) the range size and spread rate are mediated by the total extent of suitable (i.e. potentially invasible) habitat; and (3) the range size and spread rate depend on the frequency and intensity of introductions (propagule pressure), the position of founder populations in relation to the potential range, and the spatial distribution of the potential range. We explored these considerations using a large set of invasive alien plant species in South Africa for which accurate distribution data and other relevant information were available.  Species introduced earlier and those with larger potential ranges had larger current range sizes, but we found no significant effect of the spatial distribution of potential ranges on current range sizes, and data on propagule pressure were largely unavailable. However, crucially, we showed that: (1) including residence time and potential range always significantly increases the explanatory power of the models; and (2) residence time and potential range can affect which factors emerge as significant determinants of invasiveness. Therefore, analyses not including potential range and residence time can come to misleading conclusions. When these factors were taken into account, we found that nitrogen‐fixing plants and plants invading arid regions have spread faster than other species, but these results were phylogenetically constrained. We also show that, when analysed in the context of residence time and potential range, variation in range size among invasive species is implicitly due to variation in spread rates, and, that by explicitly assuming a particular model of spread, it is possible to estimate changes in the rates of plant invasions through time.  We believe that invasion biology can develop generalizations that are useful for management, but only in the context of a suitable null model.

(2017): Naturalized alien flora of the world: species diversity, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns, geographic distribution and global hotspots of plant invasion. Using the recently built Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, containing data on the distribution of naturalized alien plants in 483 mainland and 361 island regions of the world, we describe patterns in diversity and geographic distribution of naturalized and invasive plant species, taxonomic, phylogenetic and life-history structure of the global naturalized flora as well 204 Preslia 89: 203-274, 2017 as levels of naturalization and their determinants. The mainland regions with the highest numbers of naturalized aliens are some Australian states (with New South Wales being the richest on this continent) and several North American regions (of which California with 1753 naturalized plant species represents the world's richest region in terms of naturalized alien vascular plants). England, Japan, New Zealand and the Hawaiian archipelago harbour most naturalized plants among islands or island groups. These regions also form the main hotspots of the regional levels of naturalization, measured as the percentage of naturalized aliens in the total flora of the region. Such hotspots of relative naturalized species richness appear on both the western and eastern coasts of North America, in north-western Europe, South Africa, south-eastern Australia, New Zealand, and India. High levels of island invasions by naturalized plants are concentrated in the Pacific, but also occur on individual islands across all oceans. The numbers of naturalized species are closely correlated with those of native species, with a stronger correlation and steeper increase for islands than mainland regions, indicating a greater vulnerability of islands to invasion by species that become successfully naturalized. South Africa, India, California, Cuba, Florida, Queensland and Japan have the highest numbers of invasive species. Regions in temperate and tropical zonobiomes harbour in total 9036 and 6774 naturalized species, respectively, followed by 3280 species naturalized in the Mediterranean zonobiome, 3057 in the subtropical zonobiome and 321 in the Arctic. The New World is richer in naturalized alien plants, with 9905 species compared to 7923 recorded in the Old World. While isolation is the key factor driving the level of naturalization on islands, zonobiomes differing in climatic regimes, and socioeconomy represented by per capita GDP, are central for mainland regions. The 11 most widely distributed species each occur in regions covering about one third of the globe or more in terms of the number of regions where they are naturalized and at least 35% of the Earth's land surface in terms of those regions' areas, with the most widely distributed species Sonchus oleraceus occuring in 48% of the regions that cover 42% of the world area. Other widely distributed species are Ricinus communis, Oxalis corniculata, Portulaca oleracea, Eleusine indica, Chenopodium album, Cap...

The primary objective of this publication is to provide an overview of the species identity, invasion status, geographical extent, and abundance of alien plants in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, based on fi eld records from 1979 to the end of 2000. The dataset is all the species records for the study area in the Southern African Plant Invaders Atlas (SAPIA) database during this time period. A total of 548 naturalized and casual alien plant species were catalogued and invasion was recorded almost throughout the study area. Most invasion, in terms of both species numbers and total species abundance, was recorded along the southern, southwestern and eastern coastal belts and in the adjacent interior. This area includes the whole of the Fynbos and Forest Biomes, and the moister eastern parts of the Grassland and Savanna Biomes. This study reinforces previous studies that the Fynbos Biome is the most extensively invaded vegetation type in South Africa but it also shows that parts of Savanna and Grassland are as heavily invaded as parts of the Fynbos. The Fabaceae is prominent in all biomes and Acacia with 17 listed species, accounts for a very large proportion of all invasion. Acacia mearnsii was by far the most prominent invasive species in the study area, followed by A. saligna, Lantana camara, A. cyclops, Opuntia fi cus-indica, Solanum mauritianum, Populus alba/×canescens, Melia azedarach, A. dealbata and species of Prosopis.