IMPORTANCE Despite concern about an “epidemic,” there are limited data on trends in prevalence of either type 1 or type 2 diabetes across US race and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE To estimate changes in the prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in US youth, by sex, age, and race/ethnicity between 2001 and 2009. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Case patients were ascertained in 4 geographic areas and 1 managed health care plan. The study population was determined by the 2001 and 2009 bridged-race intercensal population estimates for geographic sites and membership counts for the health plan. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalence (per 1000) of physician-diagnosed type 1 diabetes in youth aged 0 through 19 years and type 2 diabetes in youth aged 10 through 19 years. RESULTS In 2001, 4958 of 3.3 million youth were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes for a prevalence of 1.48 per 1000 (95% CI, 1.44–1.52). In 2009, 6666 of 3.4 million youth were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes for a prevalence of 1.93 per 1000 (95% CI, 1.88–1.97). In 2009, the highest prevalence of type 1 diabetes was 2.55 per 1000 among white youth (95% CI, 2.48–2.62) and the lowest was 0.35 per 1000 in American Indian youth (95% CI, 0.26–0.47) and type 1 diabetes increased between 2001 and 2009 in all sex, age, and race/ethnic subgroups except for those with the lowest prevalence (age 0–4 years and American Indians). Adjusted for completeness of ascertainment, there was a 21.1% (95% CI, 15.6%–27.0%) increase in type 1 diabetes over 8 years. In 2001, 588 of 1.7 million youth were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes for a prevalence of 0.34 per 1000 (95% CI, 0.31–0.37). In 2009, 819 of 1.8 million were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes for a prevalence of 0.46 per 1000 (95% CI, 0.43–0.49). In 2009, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes was 1.20 per 1000 among American Indian youth (95% CI, 0.96–1.51); 1.06 per 1000 among black youth (95% CI, 0.93–1.22); 0.79 per 1000 among Hispanic youth (95% CI, 0.70–0.88); and 0.17 per 1000 among white youth (95% CI, 0.15–0.20). Significant increases occurred between 2001 and 2009 in both sexes, all age-groups, and in white, Hispanic, and black youth, with no significant changes for Asian Pacific Islanders and American Indians. Adjusted for completeness of ascertainment, there was a 30.5% (95% CI, 17.3%–45.1%) overall increase in type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Between 2001 and 2009 in 5 areas of the United States, the prevalence of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents increased. Further studies are required to determine the causes of these increases.

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OBJECTIVETo forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged <20 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes incidence.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSWe used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states (diabetes, no diabetes, and death). We used 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of T1DM and T2DM from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study and U.S. Census Bureau population demographic projections. Two scenarios were considered for T1DM and T2DM incidence: 1) constant incidence over time; 2) for T1DM yearly percentage increases of 3.5, 2.2, 1.8, and 2.1% by age-groups 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years, respectively, and for T2DM a yearly 2.3% increase across all ages.RESULTSUnder scenario 1, the projected number of youth with T1DM rises from 166,018 to 203,382 and with T2DM from 20,203 to 30,111, respectively, in 2010 and 2050. Under scenario 2, the number of youth with T1DM nearly triples from 179,388 in 2010 to 587,488 in 2050 (prevalence 2.13/1,000 and 5.20/1,000 [+144% increase]), with the greatest increase in youth of minority racial/ethnic groups. The number of youth with T2DM almost quadruples from 22,820 in 2010 to 84,131 in 2050; prevalence increases from 0.27/1,000 to 0.75/1,000 (+178% increase).CONCLUSIONSA linear increase in diabetes incidence could result in a substantial increase in the number of youth with T1DM and T2DM over the next 40 years, especially those of minority race/ethnicity.