Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

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Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses.

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This paper investigates a detailed well-dated Lateglacial floristic colonisation in the eastern Baltic area, ca. 14 000-9000 cal. a BP, using palynological, macrofossil, loss-on-ignition, and 14 C data. During 14 000-13 400 cal. a BP, primarily treeless pioneer tundra vegetation existed. Tree birch (Betula sect. Albae) macro-remains and a high tree pollen accumulation rate indicate the presence of forest-tundra with birch and possibly pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees during 13 400-12 850 cal. a BP. Palaeobotanical data indicate that the colonisation and development of forested areas were very rapid, arising within a period of less than 50 years. Thus far, there are no indications of conifer macrofossils in Estonia to support the presence of coniferous forests in the Lateglacial period. Signs of Greenland Interstadial 1b cooling during 13 100 cal. a BP are distinguishable. Biostratigraphic evidence indicates that the vegetation was again mostly treeless tundra during the final colder episode of the Lateglacial period associated with Greenland Stadial 1, approximately 12 850-11 650 cal. a BP. This was followed by onset of the Holocene vegetation, with the expansion of boreal forests, in response to rapid climatic warming.

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The 4.5 m thick Haljala sequence in North Estonia was studied to provide information on palaeoenvironmental changes between 13 800 and 11 300 cal yr BP. Late glacial environmental history of North Estonia was reconstructed using AMS-dated pollen record, sediment composition, plant macrofossils, and ostracods. The obtained data show environmental fluctuations that are linked to the climate shifts of the Last Termination in the North Atlantic region. Decrease in the arboreal pollen accumulation rate around 13 700-13 600 and 13 300-13 100 cal yr BP refers to short deterioration of climate within the Allerød Interstadial and has been correlated with the cooling of the Greenland Interstadial GI-1c and GI-1b events, respectively. Between 13 100 and 12 850 cal yr BP the pollen accumulation rate of trees, shrubs, and herb as well as organic matter increased, indicating short-term climate amelioration and establishment of pine-birch woods. This change has been correlated with the GI-1a event. Climate deterioration during the Younger Dryas (GS-1) was inferred from the reduction of tree pollen and flourishing of cold-tolerant species, such as Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, and Cyperaceae. New data show that ice cover of the Pandivere Upland started to perish already about 13 800 cal yr BP.