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Summary 1.Norway spruce ( Picea abies ), one of the dominant tree species in Eurasia, has spread slowly westward in northern Europe, invading eastern Finland about 6500 calibrated years ago (cal. years BP), eastern central Sweden about 2700 cal. years BP and southern Norway about 1000 cal. years BP. Its spread is the most recent and best constrained invasion of a main tree species in northern Europe and allows an assessment of colonization patterns and associated competitive replacement processes. 2. We analysed five selected high-resolution pollen accumulation rate (PAR) -records along a 700-km long transect in the direction of P. abies invasion from eastern Finland to central Sweden across the present P. abies -and Pinus sylvestris-dominated southern boreal zone. 3. Our results show that the P. abies population increased in size from the time of the initial expansion to levels comparable with the modern in 100-550 years. At each site P. abies invaded a dense, intact Pinus -Betula -Alnus forest, mixed with temperate deciduous taxa, particularly Tilia cordata and Corylus avellana . The resident mixed forest provided no or weak resistance to the colonization of P. abies , and the variable population growth rate was therefore not caused by compositional differences in the resident forest but by other, possibly local edaphic factors. 4. Of the taxa that formed the resident forest, T . cordata responded most strongly to the invasion of P. abies . This suggests that the mid-Holocene T. cordata population decline was not directly climateinduced but resulted from competitive replacement due to overlapping ecological niches with P. abies , a stronger competitor. 5. Synthesis . The rise to dominance of P. abies was caused not only by its rapid population growth but by associated competitive suppression of other taxa, leading to a major ecosystem change from a mixed conifer-deciduous forest to the modern P. abies -and P. sylvestris -dominated boreal conifer forest in central Fennoscandia. This competitive suppression by P. abies is still reflected in the scattered occurrence and generally weak performance of T. cordata in the boreal zone of Europe and may influence its distribution and abundance patterns under predicted future climate scenarios.

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Holocene climate dynamics in Latvia, eastern Baltic region: a pollenbased summer temperature reconstruction and regional comparison MAIJA HEIKKILÄ AND HEIKKI SEPPÄ BOREAS Heikkil¨a, M. & Sepp¨a, H. 2010 (October): Holocene climate dynamics in Latvia, eastern Baltic region: a pollen-based summer temperature reconstruction and regional comparison.A pollen-based summer temperature (T summer ) reconstruction reveals the Holocene climate history in southeastern Latvia and contributes to the limited understanding of past climate behaviour in the eastern sector of northern Europe. Notably, steady climate warming of the early Holocene was interrupted c. 8350-8150 cal. yr BP by the well-known 8.2 ka cold event, recorded as a decrease of 0.9 to 1.81C in T summer . During the Holocene Thermal Maximum, c. 8000-4000 cal. yr BP, the reconstructed summer temperature was $2.5-3.51C higher than the modern reconstructed value, and subsequently declined towards present-day values. Comparison of the current reconstruction with other pollen-based reconstructions in northern Europe shows that the 8.2 ka event is particularly clearly reflected in the Baltic region, possibly as a result of distinct climatic and ecological gradients and the sensitivity of the vegetation growth pattern to seasonal temperature change. The new reconstruction also reveals that the Holocene Thermal Maximum was warmer in Latvia than in central Europe and Fennoscandia. In fact, a gradient of increasing positive temperature anomalies is detected from northernmost Fennoscandia towards the south and from the Atlantic coast in Norway towards the continental East European Plain. The dynamics of the temperate broadleaved tree species Tilia and Quercus in Latvia and adjacent northern Europe during the mid-Holocene give complementary information on the multifaceted climatic and environmental changes in the region.

Abstract.A synthesis of well-dated high-resolution pollen records suggests a spatial structure in the 8200 cal yr BP event in northern Europe. The temperate, thermophilous tree taxa, especially Corylus, Ulmus, and Alnus, decline abruptly between 8300 and 8000 cal yr BP at most sites located south of 61 • N, whereas there is no clear change in pollen values at the sites located in the North-European tree-line region. Pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and several other, independent palaeoclimate proxies, such as lacustrine oxygen-isotope records, reflect the same pattern, with no detectable cooling in the sub-arctic region. The observed patterns challenges the general view of the widespread occurrence of the 8200 cal yr BP event in the North Atlantic region. An alternative explanation is that the cooling during the 8200 cal yr BP event took place mostly during the winter and spring, and the ecosystems in the south responded sensitively to the cooling during the onset of the growing season. In contrast, in the sub-arctic area, where the vegetation was still dormant and lakes ice-covered, the cold event is not reflected in pollen-based or lake-sediment-based records.

Aim To assess statistically the relative importance of climate and human impact on forest composition in the late Holocene.Location Estonia, boreonemoral Europe.Methods Data on forest composition (10 most abundant tree and shrub taxa) for the late Holocene (5100-50 calibrated years before 1950) were derived from 18 pollen records and then transformed into land-cover estimates using the REVEALS vegetation reconstruction model. Human impact was quantified with palaeoecological estimates of openness, frequencies of hemerophilous pollen types (taxa growing in habitats influenced by human activities) and microscopic charcoal particles. Climate data generated with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model provided summer and winter temperature data. The modelled data were supported by sedimentary stable oxygen isotope (d 18 O) records. Redundancy analysis (RDA), variation partitioning and linear mixed effects (LME) models were applied for statistical analyses.Results Both climate and human impact were statistically significant predictors of forest compositional change during the late Holocene. While climate exerted a dominant influence on forest composition in the beginning of the study period, human impact was the strongest driver of forest composition change in the middle of the study period, c. 4000-2000 years ago, when permanent agriculture became established and expanded. The late Holocene cooling negatively affected populations of nemoral deciduous taxa (Tilia, Corylus, Ulmus, Quercus, Alnus and Fraxinus), allowing boreal taxa (Betula, Salix, Picea and Pinus) to succeed. Whereas human impact has favoured populations of early-successional taxa that colonize abandoned agricultural fields (Betula, Salix, Alnus) or that can grow on less fertile soils (Pinus), it has limited taxa such as Picea that tend to grow on more mesic and fertile soils.Main conclusions Combining palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data from multiple sources facilitates quantitative characterization of factors driving forest composition dynamics on millennial time-scales. Our results suggest that in addition to the climatic influence on forest composition, the relative abundance of individual forest taxa has been significantly influenced by human impact over the last four millennia.

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north-eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900-11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi-open vegetation. The spread of Pinus-Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re-establishment of Pinus-Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate-driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land.

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses.