The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (like age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.April 15, 2020

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.

We report the discovery of a warm sub-Saturn, TOI-257b (HD 19916b), based on data from NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The transit signal was detected by TESS and confirmed to be of planetary origin based on radial velocity observations. An analysis of the TESS photometry, the Minerva-Australis, FEROS, and HARPS radial velocities, and the asteroseismic data of the stellar oscillations reveals that TOI-257b has a mass of MP = 0.138 ± 0.023 $\rm {M_J}$ (43.9 ± 7.3  M⊕), a radius of RP = 0.639 ± 0.013 $\rm {R_J}$ (7.16 ± 0.15  R⊕), bulk density of $0.65^{+0.12}_{-0.11}$ (cgs), and period $18.38818^{+0.00085}_{-0.00084}$ $\rm {days}$. TOI-257b orbits a bright (V = 7.612 mag) somewhat evolved late F-type star with M* = 1.390 ± 0.046 $\rm {M_{sun}}$, R* = 1.888 ± 0.033 $\rm {R_{sun}}$, Teff = 6075 ± 90 $\rm {K}$, and vsin i = 11.3 ± 0.5 km s−1. Additionally, we find hints for a second non-transiting sub-Saturn mass planet on a ∼71 day orbit using the radial velocity data. This system joins the ranks of a small number of exoplanet host stars (∼100) that have been characterized with asteroseismology. Warm sub-Saturns are rare in the known sample of exoplanets, and thus the discovery of TOI-257b is important in the context of future work studying the formation and migration history of similar planetary systems.

In recent years, several close post-common-envelope eclipsing binaries have been found to show cyclic eclipse timing variations (ETVs). This effect is usually interpreted either as the gravitational interaction among circumbinary bodies and the host binary -known as the light travel time (LTT) effect -or as the quadrupole moment variations in one magnetic active component -known as Applegate mechanism. In this study, we present an analysis of the ETV and the magnetic cycle of the close binary KIC 10544976. This system is composed of a white dwarf and a red dwarf in a short orbital period (0.35 days) and was monitored by ground-based telescopes between 2005 and 2017 and by the Kepler satellite between 2009 and 2013. Using the Kepler data, we derived the magnetic cycle of the red dwarf by two ways: the rate and energy of flares and the variability due to spots. Both methods resulted in a cycle of ∼600 days, which is in agreement with magnetic cycles measured for single low-mass stars. The orbital period of KIC 10544976 shows only one long-term variation which can be fitted by an LTT effect with period of ∼16.8 yr. Hence, one possible explanation for the ETVs is the presence of a circumbinary body with minimal mass of ∼13.4 M Jup . In the particular scenario of coplanarity between the external body and the inner binary, the third body mass is also ∼13.4 M Jup . In this case, the circumbinary planet must either have survived the evolution of the host binary or have been formed as a consequence of its evolution.

The COVID-19 pandemic was severely aggravated in Brazil due to its politicization by the country’s federal government. However, the impact of diffuse political forces on the fatality of an epidemic is notoriously difficult to quantify. Here we introduce a method to measure this effect in the Brazilian case, based on the inhomogeneous distribution throughout the national territory of political support for the federal government. This political support is quantified by the voting rates in the last general election in Brazil. This data is correlated with the fatality rates by COVID-19 in each Brazilian state as the number of deaths grows over time. We show that the correlation between fatality rate and political support grows as the government’s misinformation campaign is developed. This led to the dominance of such political factor for the pandemic impact in Brazil in 2021. Once this dominance is established, this correlation allows for an estimation of the total number of deaths due to political influence as 350±70 thousand up to the end of 2021, corresponding to (57±11)% of the total number of deaths.