The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems.

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The ecological integrity of rivers ultimately depends on flow regime. Flow degradation is especially prominent in Mediterranean systems and assessing environmental flows in modified rivers is difficult, especially in environments with poor hydrologic monitoring and data availability. In many Mediterranean countries, which are characterized by pronounced natural variability and low summer flows, water management actions usually focus on prescribing minimum acceptable flows estimated by hydrologic methods. In this study, a comparative assessment of environmental flow estimation methods is developed in a river with poorly monitored flows and limited understanding of past reference conditions. This assessment incorporates both a hydrologic and a fish habitat simulation effort that takes into consideration hydrologic seasonality in a Greek mountainous river. The results of this study indicate that especially in data scarce regions the utilization of biotic indicators through habitat models, may provide valuable information, beyond that achievable with hydrologic methods, for developing regional environmental flow criteria. Despite the widespread use of the method, challenges in transferability of fish habitat simulation provide undefined levels of uncertainty and may require the concurrent use of different assessment tools and site-specific study.

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Hydraulic-habitat models combine the dynamic behavior of river discharge with geomorphological and ecological responses. In this study, they are used for estimating environmental flow requirements. We applied a Pseudo-two-dimensional (2D) model based on the one-dimensional (1D) HEC-RAS model and an in-house 2D (FLOW-R2D) hydrodynamic model to a section of river for several flows in respect of summer conditions of the study reach, and compared the results derived from the models in terms of water depths and velocities as well as habitat predictions in terms of weighted usable area (WUA). In general, 2D models are more promising in habitat studies since they quantify spatial variations and combinations of flow patterns important to stream flora and fauna in a higher detail than the 1D models. Relationships between WUA and discharge for the two models were examined, to compare the similarity as well as the magnitude of predictions over the modelled discharge range. The models predicted differences in the location of maxima and changes in variation of velocity and water depth. Finally, differences in spatial distribution (in terms of suitability indices and WUA) between the Pseudo-2D and the fully 2D modelling results can be considerable on a cell-by-cell basis.