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We image the rupture history of the 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake using a nonlinear joint inversion of strong motion and GPS data. This earthquake ruptured a normal fault striking along the Apennines axis and dipping to the SW. The inferred slip distribution is heterogeneous and characterized by a small, shallow slip patch located up‐dip from the hypocenter (9.5 km depth) and a large, deeper patch located southeastward. The rupture velocity is larger in the up‐dip than in the along‐strike direction. This difference can be partially accounted by the crustal structure, which is characterized by a high velocity layer above the hypocenter and a lower velocity below. The latter velocity seems to have affected the along strike propagation since the largest slip patch is located at depths between 9 and 14 km. The imaged slip distribution correlates well with the on‐fault aftershock pattern as well as with mapped surface breakages.

On 24 August 2016 a magnitude ML 6.0 occurred in the Central Apennines (Italy) between Amatrice and Norcia causing nearly 300 fatalities. The main shock ruptured a NNW‐SSE striking, WSW dipping normal fault. We invert waveforms from 26 three‐component strong motion accelerometers, filtered between 0.02 and 0.5 Hz, within 45 km from the fault. The inferred slip distribution is heterogeneous and characterized by two shallow slip patches updip and NW from the hypocenter, respectively. The rupture history shows bilateral propagation and a relatively high rupture velocity (3.1 km/s). The imaged rupture history produced evident directivity effects both N‐NW and SE of the hypocenter, explaining near‐source peak ground motions. Fault dimensions and peak slip values are large for a moderate‐magnitude earthquake. The retrieved rupture model fits the recorded ground velocities up to 1 Hz, corroborating the effects of rupture directivity and slip heterogeneity on ground shaking and damage pattern.

We study the 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake (MW 6.5) to retrieve the rupture history by jointly inverting seismograms and coseismic Global Positioning System displacements obtained by dense local networks. The adopted fault geometry consists of a main normal fault striking N155° and dipping 47° belonging to the Mt. Vettore‐Mt. Bove fault system (VBFS) and a secondary fault plane striking N210° and dipping 36° to the NW. The coseismic rupture initiated on the VBFS and propagated with similar rupture velocity on both fault planes. Updip from the nucleation point, two main slip patches have been imaged on these fault segments, both characterized by similar peak‐slip values (~3 m) and rupture times (~3 s). After the breakage of the two main slip patches, coseismic rupture further propagated southeastward along the VBFS, rupturing again the same fault portion that slipped during the 24 August earthquake. The retrieved coseismic slip distribution is consistent with the observed surface breakages and the deformation pattern inferred from interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements. Our results show that three different fault systems were activated during the 30 October earthquake. The composite rupture model inferred in this study provides evidences that also a deep portion of the NNE trending section of the Olevano‐Antrodoco‐Sibillini thrust broke coseismically, implying the kinematic inversion of a thrust ramp. The obtained rupture history indicates that in this sector of the Apennines, compressional structures inherited from past tectonics can alternatively segment boundaries of NW trending active normal faults or break coseismically during moderate‐to‐large magnitude earthquakes.

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The physical mechanisms governing slow earthquakes remain unknown, as does the relationship between slow and regular earthquakes. To investigate the mechanism(s) of slow earthquakes and related quasi‐dynamic modes of fault slip we performed laboratory experiments on simulated fault gouge in the double direct shear configuration. We reproduced the full spectrum of slip behavior, from slow to fast stick slip, by altering the elastic stiffness of the loading apparatus (k) to match the critical rheologic stiffness of fault gouge (kc). Our experiments show an evolution from stable sliding, when k > kc, to quasi‐dynamic transients when k ~ kc, to dynamic instabilities when k < kc. To evaluate the microphysical processes of fault weakening we monitored variations of elastic properties. We find systematic changes in P wave velocity (Vp) for laboratory seismic cycles. During the coseismic stress drop, seismic velocity drops abruptly, consistent with observations on natural faults. In the preparatory phase preceding failure, we find that accelerated fault creep causes a Vp reduction for the complete spectrum of slip behaviors. Our results suggest that the mechanics of slow and fast ruptures share key features and that they can occur on same faults, depending on frictional properties. In agreement with seismic surveys on tectonic faults our data show that their state of stress can be monitored by Vp changes during the seismic cycle. The observed reduction in Vp during the earthquake preparatory phase suggests that if similar mechanisms are confirmed in nature high‐resolution monitoring of fault zone properties may be a promising avenue for reliable detection of earthquake precursors.

S U M M A R YWe present a physically based methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for earthquakes along specific faults or within specific source volumes, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this methodology into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). By 'physically based,' we refer to ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This approach replaces the aleatory uncertainty that current PSHA studies estimate by regression of empirical parameters with epistemic uncertainty that is expressed by the variability in the physical parameters of the earthquake rupture. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by further research. We modelled wave propagation with empirical Green's functions. We applied our methodology to the 1999 September 7 M w = 6.0 Athens earthquake for frequencies between 1 and 20 Hz. We developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of the earthquake rupture process and on sources within the region, and computed a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible for a magnitude M w = 6.0 earthquake with our approach. We found that: (1) our distribution of synthesized ground motions spans what actually occurred and that the distribution is realistically narrow; (2) one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (3) certain combinations of rupture parameters produced 'extreme,' but not unrealistic ground motions at some stations; (4) the best-fitting rupture models occur in the vicinity of 38.05 • N, 23.60 • W with a centre of rupture near a 12-km depth and have nearly unilateral rupture toward the areas of high damage, which is consistent with independent investigations. We synthesized ground motion in the areas of high damage where strong motion records were not recorded from this earthquake. We also developed a demonstration PSHA for a single magnitude earthquake and for a single source region near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 yr for this magnitude earthquake and synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone, thereby having simulated a sample catalogue of ground motion for a period of 500 000 yr. We then used the synthesized ground motions rather than traditional attenuation relations for the PSHA.In this paper, we present a physically based methodology to predict a range of ground motions at a particular site that may occur from a particular magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and demonstrate a means to incorporate this into traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The prediction methodology is based upon the work first presented by Hutchings (1991Hutchings ( , 1994 and further developed by . The physical model proposed by the previous studies has been further developed in this study and the methodology expanded to include PSHA. We apply the methodology to the M w = 6.0, 1999 Athens earthquake. The full methodology i...