Kulcsszavak: regionális növekedés, tényezőáramlás, termelékenység, agglomerációs gazdaság, konvergencia A tanulmány célja, hogy -szakítva a neoklasszikus Solow-modell zárt gazdaságokra tett feltevésévelegy olyan elméleti modellkeretet alakítson ki, amely számol az agglomerációs előnyökből fakadó külső növekvő mérethozadék, valamint a termelési tényezők szabad áramlásának lehetőségével, így pontosabb és részletesebb előrejelzéseket képes adni a regionális növekedést befolyásoló tényezők hatásirányairól. A vázolt modellkereten alapuló regressziós becslések eredményei szerint Magyarországon az urbanizáltság korai szintje, a népességnövekedés és a foglalkoztatás szektorális átrétegződése hosszú távon hozzájárul az urbanizált térségek fejlődéséhez. A vizsgálat eredményei a feltételes konvergencia hipotézisét is megerősítették. A becsült konvergenciaütem magasabb, mint az országos keresztmetszeti vizsgálatok során kapott 2%-os érték. Az eredmények a modellspecifikáció változására robusztusak.
Automation risk prevails less in large cities compared to small cities but little is known about the drivers of this emerging urban phenomenon. A major challenge is that automation risk is quantified by work-related tasks that allows for measurement through occupation, which is in turn implicitly related to local economic structure and to individual career paths. This paper examines the role of working in cities on changes in automation risk through individual career mobility. Using panel data on Swedish workers, we show that the metropolitan effect of reducing automation risk is mainly induced through inter-firm job mobility. Separate estimates for different groups show that this effect accrues mostly to native, high-skilled and male workers.
Vaccination may be the solution to the pandemic-induced health crisis, but the allocation of vaccines is a complex task in which ethical, economic and social considerations are important. The biggest challenge is to use the limited number of vaccines available in a way that protects vulnerable groups, prevents further spread of infection, and reduces economic uncertainty. We argue that once the vaccination of healthcare workers and the most vulnerable groups has been completed, prioritizing the vaccination of on-site workers is important not only to slow the spread of the infection, but also to ensure the smooth running of economic production. We propose a simple economic model where remote and on-site workers are complementary to each other in the short run, thus a negative shock to the supply of either one may decrease the demand for the other, leading to unemployment. By illustrating the model using pre-Covid employment data from Sweden and Hungary, we show that the optimal vaccine allocation between remote and on-site workers in the tradable sector should be based on different proportions depending on the relative infection risk of on-site workers and the degree of vaccine availability. As long as the number of vaccines is limited and on-site workers are at higher risk of infection, they should be preferred in general. However, as more vaccines become available, countries like Sweden, where the share of occupations that can be done remotely is higher shall start immunize remote workers. In Hungary, where on-site work is dominant in the tradable sector, continued vaccination of on-site workers is more beneficial.
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