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The duration and intensity of future heat waves are analyzed for 53 cities in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) region for the 21st century under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A consistent approach is carried out using data from 13 Regional models within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). By the end of the century, 80% of the most populated MENA cities are expected to be at least 50% of the days under heat wave conditions during the warm season. In addition, the mean and maximum intensity of the heat waves will also increase. Changes in the duration and intensity of heat waves have shown to be negatively correlated. Therefore, the vulnerability of the MENA cities to future heat waves was determined using a cumulative index (CI) that takes into account both duration and intensity. This CI indicates that Middle East and the eastern part of Africa will suffer the most unfavorable temperature conditions in the future. Assuming no intervention trough adaptation/mitigation strategies, these results, together with the particular properties of the MENA region, such as aridity or lack of precipitation, make it likely that the area will be affected by disease or famine.

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Knowing future changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) is of vital importance since they can affect marine ecosystems, especially in areas of high productivity such as the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS). In this sense, it is key to have fine resolution models to study the SST patterns as close as possible to the coast where the upwelling influence is greater. Thus, the main objective of the present work is to assess the ability of 23 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in reproducing the upwelling SST imprint in the EBUS through a comparison with the Optimum Interpolation of Sea Surface Temperature (OISST ¼) database of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the common period of 1982–2014. The results have shown that most of the CMIP6 GCMs overestimate nearshore SST for all the EBUS with the exception of Canary. Overall, the models with better resolution showed lower Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Normalized Bias (NBias), although the ability of the models is dependent on the study area. Thus, the most suitable models for each EBUS are the CNRM-HR, GFDL-CM4, HadGEM-MM, CMCC-VHR4, and EC-Earth3P for Canary; CESM1-HR, CMCC-VHR4, ECMWF-HR, and HadGEM-HM for Humboldt; and HadGEM-HH and HadGEM-HM for California. In the case of Benguela, no model adequately reproduces the SST imprint under the conditions established in the present study.