2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242477
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Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century

Abstract: The duration and intensity of future heat waves are analyzed for 53 cities in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) region for the 21st century under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A consistent approach is carried out using data from 13 Regional models within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). By the end of the century, 80% of the most populated MENA cities are expected to be at least 50% of the days under heat wave conditions during the warm … Show more

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Cited by 30 publications
(25 citation statements)
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“…We applied a short-term but high intensity heat shock on adult beetles, reflecting extreme daily maximal temperatures, which are predicted to increase in frequency due to climate change (Johnson et al, 2018). In a parallel experiment using the same populations, we applied long-term heat stress throughout the entire larval development, as may result from increasing variation in average monthly temperatures (Bathiany et al, 2018;Varela et al, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We applied a short-term but high intensity heat shock on adult beetles, reflecting extreme daily maximal temperatures, which are predicted to increase in frequency due to climate change (Johnson et al, 2018). In a parallel experiment using the same populations, we applied long-term heat stress throughout the entire larval development, as may result from increasing variation in average monthly temperatures (Bathiany et al, 2018;Varela et al, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We applied a shortterm but high intensity heat shock on adult beetles, reflecting extreme daily maximal temperatures, which are predicted to increase in frequency due to climate change (Johnson et al, 2018). In a parallel experiment using the same populations, we applied long-term heat stress throughout the entire larval development, as may result from increasing variation in average monthly temperatures (Bathiany et al, 2018;Varela et al, 2020). We find no evidence that the genetic load of a population is related to its average TSF.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 89%
“…Current projections for Lomé predict an increase of the average daily maximal temperature in the months from February to April from 32°C in the late th century, up to a maximum of 37.2°C by the end of the 21 st century (Varela et al, 2020). Beetles assigned to this treatment developed at an elevated temperature of 35°C throughout their entire larval and pupal stage (ca.…”
Section: Juvenile Heat Stressmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Global climate has changed rapidly over recent decades, and climate-change predictions in some waterlimited regions, such as westernmost Mediterranean (Iberia and Morocco), North Africa and Middle East, forecast a significant shift in the near future, with less frequent precipitation and hotter and longer drought events (Varela et al, 2020, Weniger et al, 2019. An impact of climate change has already been observed on biodiversity and crop productivity; and consequently, on human livelihoods in affected areas (Wheeler & von Braun, 2013).…”
Section: Mainmentioning
confidence: 99%