The purpose of the study: to establish gender and age characteristics of the prevalence and risk of developing hypertension (AH) among outpatients living in the city of Tambov, according to electronic medical records (EMR).The information from the EMC of 47,113 people aged 20-99 living in Tambov was used. The prevalence rate (per 100 people) and the relative risk of developing (RR) hypertension in different sex and age groups were calculated.The prevalence of hypertension among people aged 20-99 was 45.7 cases, in women it is higher than in men by 23% (50.1 vs 38.4 cases). With age, there is an increase in the prevalence of hypertension from 1.7% in 20-24 to 86.8% in 70-74 years old people. In the transition from a smaller age group to a larger one, the increase in the prevalence of hypertension among the female cohort averaged 22.5%, among the male cohort - an average of 17.2%. The RR for the development of hypertension among the female cohort aged 20-99 years is 1.2 times higher compared to the male cohort of the same age. At the age of 25-34, the OR for the development of hypertension prevails among the male cohort, at 45-89 years old - among the female cohort.The high level and established differences in the prevalence and risk of developing hypertension determine the need to develop recommendations for hypertension screening among the population, stratification into risk groups, prevention and treatment, focused on different age and gender groups.
The paper uses time series modeling methods using a two-sided linear equation of a difference equation. The properties of the simulated sequences, in particular, stationarity in sensations, are substantiated using the ztransform based on the conditions of the roots. The composition of the program for modeling the time series, computational experiments were carried out. Suggestions of the results of the study of the properties of the modeled sequences.
The measures taken by the state in previous years to reduce mortality and increase the birth rate have exhausted themselves: in recent years, in a number of regions, there has been an excess of mortality over birth rate (repetition of the "Russian cross"). In this regard, research is relevant, connected not only with identifying the effect of the Russian cross, but also determining the prospects for its repetition. Purpose: forecasting demographic processes in the region and identifying the causes of the demographic crisis. Methods: tabular and graphical methods for analyzing the ratio of fertility and mortality rates, correlation analysis to identify the relationship between the national composition of the region and the fertility rate, econometric methods for constructing and researching multidimensional time series, which consists in developing a vector model of error correction that allows studying mutual responses to shocks in dynamics and forecast the levels of fertility and mortality in the region. Results: the study made it possible to predict the most important demographic indicators in the region on the basis of a vector error correction model, which reflects both the short-term equilibrium between the dynamics of the birth rate and mortality rate, and allows us to correct the deviation from the long-term equilibrium based on taking into account the previous deviations from such an equilibrium. The forecasting results showed the persistence in the near future of imbalances in population reproduction, revealed the problem of divorce before the birth of the first child in families due to financial difficulties or fear of this, and confirmed the advisability of introducing new government measures aimed at increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality. Scientific novelty: the article for the first time uses the multidimensional time series toolkit in the form of a vector error correction model for predicting demographic processes in the Orenburg region. Practical significance: the proposed approach can be used in the analysis and forecasting of the effect of the "Russian cross" for any region of the Russian Federation, and the results obtained can be used by the authorities in the development of demographic and socio-economic programs to support the population.
The article is devoted to the study of reproductive behavior and fertility forecast in the steppe regions of Russia. The purpose of the work is to identify the main patterns and determinants of the reproductive behavior of population in the regions of the steppe zone of Russia. The objectives of the study included a description of the main characteristics of fertility indicators, establishing the significance of differences in reproductive behavior indicators, calculating an integral indicator of reproductive behavior and predicting fertility in the regions under study. In the period 1990-2020 in the territory under consideration, there was a general decrease in the population by 847 thousand people, the main reasons for which were a decrease in the natural population growth and negative migration rates. In the regions of the steppe zone, there is a tendency to increase in the territories with lower birth rates, the average age of a mother at the birth of her first child is growing, there are processes of postponing the birth of children and later marriage. Calculation of the integral indicator made it possible to conduct a rating assessment of the steppe regions of Russia in terms of reproductive behavior. As a result, the values of the integral indicator of reproductive behavior are maximum in the Republic of Kalmykia, and minimum in Saratov oblast. As a result of modeling and forecasting the birth rate in the studied regions till 2025, it was found that the forecasts for most subjects of the steppe zone are disappointing. A uniform decrease in fertility rates is observed in 16 regions, of which the largest decline is forecast in the Republic of Bashkortostan — by 0.9 births per 1,000 people, the Republic of Kalmykia (by 0.8) and Orenburg oblast (by 0.8). Only in 2 regions the calculated forecasts have a positive trend — in Belgorod (by 0.4) and Omsk (by 0.6) oblasts.
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