Assessment of reproductive behavior and fertility on the example of the steppe regions of Russia

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of reproductive behavior and fertility forecast in the steppe regions of Russia. The purpose of the work is to identify the main patterns and determinants of the reproductive behavior of population in the regions of the steppe zone of Russia. The objectives of the study included a description of the main characteristics of fertility indicators, establishing the significance of differences in reproductive behavior indicators, calculating an integral indicator of reproductive behavior and predicting fertility in the regions under study. In the period 1990-2020 in the territory under consideration, there was a general decrease in the population by 847 thousand people, the main reasons for which were a decrease in the natural population growth and negative migration rates. In the regions of the steppe zone, there is a tendency to increase in the territories with lower birth rates, the average age of a mother at the birth of her first child is growing, there are processes of postponing the birth of children and later marriage. Calculation of the integral indicator made it possible to conduct a rating assessment of the steppe regions of Russia in terms of reproductive behavior. As a result, the values of the integral indicator of reproductive behavior are maximum in the Republic of Kalmykia, and minimum in Saratov oblast. As a result of modeling and forecasting the birth rate in the studied regions till 2025, it was found that the forecasts for most subjects of the steppe zone are disappointing. A uniform decrease in fertility rates is observed in 16 regions, of which the largest decline is forecast in the Republic of Bashkortostan — by 0.9 births per 1,000 people, the Republic of Kalmykia (by 0.8) and Orenburg oblast (by 0.8). Only in 2 regions the calculated forecasts have a positive trend — in Belgorod (by 0.4) and Omsk (by 0.6) oblasts.