[1] Subduction is a key process for terrestrial plate tectonics, but its initiation is still not entirely understood. In particular, despite the abundance of both passive and active continental margins on Earth, no obvious cases of transition between them have been identified so far. It has been shown that at most passive margins, elastic and frictional forces exceed gravitational instability and ridge-push forces, which precludes subduction initiation. Therefore additional factors are needed to start subduction there. We investigated numerically in two dimensions factors controlling passive margins' stability such as age of the oceanic plate, thickness of the continental lithosphere and crust, and density contrast between subcontinental and suboceanic lithospheric mantles. Our numerical experiments show that three subsequent tectonic regimes can develop at a passive margin: (1) stable margin, (2) overthrusting, and (3) subduction. Transition from stable margin to the overthrusting regime is mainly controlled by ductile strength of the lower continental crust. Further transition from overthrusting to the subduction regime is governed by the ductile strength of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle and its chemical density contrast with the suboceanic lithospheric mantle. Our experiments also demonstrate that the age of the oceanic plate is a factor of secondary importance for subduction initiation and only plays a role if other parameters are of critical values. Favorable conditions for subduction initiation thus correspond to passive margins where chemically buoyant (depleted) continental lithosphere becomes thin and hot (Moho temperature >660°C). This situation can be occasionally created by superimposed external processes such as rifting and/or thermal-chemical plume activity.

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