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Transport with ocean currents affects the spatial distribution and survival of fish eggs and larvae and thereby population connectivity. Biophysical models are commonly used to understand these dynamics. Advancements such as implementing vertical swimming behaviour and higher resolution ocean circulation models are known to improve model performance, however, the relative importance of vertical behaviour vs. ocean model resolution is elusive. Here, we use North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) as a case study to assess how vertical movement, ocean model resolution and interannual variation in ocean dynamics influence drift patterns and population connectivity. We couple a fine (1.6 km, 3 h) and coarser (4 km, 24 h) ocean model to an individual-based model for cod eggs and larvae, and compare simulations with and without vertical movement of eggs and larvae. The results are moderately influenced by vertical movement and ocean model resolution but differ substantially between years. While ocean model resolution is consistently more influential than vertical movement, the effect of vertical movement strongly depends on the spatiotemporal scale of the analyses. This study highlights which aspects of biophysical modelling of connectivity that most critically affect the results, allowing better investing computational resources and proposing goal-based guidelines for future studies.

In the last twenty years, several global targets for protection of marine biodiversity have been adopted but have failed. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at preserving 10% of all the marine biomes by 2020. For achieving this goal, ecologically or biologically significant areas (EBSA) have to be identified in all biogeographic regions. However, the methodologies for identifying the best suitable areas are still to be agreed. Here, we propose a framework for applying the CBD criteria to locate potential ecologically or biologically significant seamount areas based on the best information currently available. The framework combines the likelihood of a seamount constituting an EBSA and its level of human impact and can be used at global, regional and local scales. This methodology allows the classification of individual seamounts into four major portfolio conservation categories which can help optimize management efforts toward the protection of the most suitable areas. The framework was tested against 1000 dummy seamounts and satisfactorily assigned seamounts to proper EBSA and threats categories. Additionally, the framework was applied to eight case study seamounts that were included in three out of four portfolio categories: areas highly likely to be identified as EBSA with high degree of threat; areas highly likely to be EBSA with low degree of threat; and areas with a low likelihood of being EBSA with high degree of threat. This framework will allow managers to identify seamount EBSAs and to prioritize their policies in terms of protecting undisturbed areas, disturbed areas for recovery of habitats and species, or both based on their management objectives. It also identifies seamount EBSAs and threats considering different ecological groups in both pelagic and benthic communities. Therefore, this framework may represent an important tool to mitigate seamount biodiversity loss and to achieve the 2020 CBD goals.

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Life history strategies such as multiyear life cycles, resting stages, and capital breeding allow species to inhabit regions with extreme and fluctuating environmental conditions. One example is the zooplankton species Calanus hyperboreus, whose life history is considered an adaptation to the short and unpredictable growth season in the central Arctic Ocean. This copepod is commonly described as a true Arctic endemic; however, by statistically analyzing compiled observational data, we show that abundances are relatively low and later stages and adults dominate in the central Arctic Ocean basins, indicating expatriation. Combining data analyses with individual-based modeling and energy requirement estimation, we further demonstrate that while C. hyperboreus can reach higher abundances in areas with greater food availability outside the central Arctic basins, the species' resilience to environmental fluctuations enables the life cycle to be completed in the central Arctic basins. Specifically, the energy level required to reach the first overwintering stage-a prerequisite for successful local production-is likely met in some-but not all-years. This fine balance between success and failure indicates that C. hyperboreus functions as a peripheral population in the central Arctic basins and its abundance will likely increase in areas with improved growth conditions in response to climate change. By illustrating a key Arctic species' resilience to extreme and fluctuating environmental conditions, the results of this study have implications for projections of future biogeography and food web dynamics in the Arctic Ocean, a region experiencing rapid warming and sea ice loss.

Predator-mediated apparent competition is an indirect negative interaction between two prey species mediated by a shared predator. Quantifying such indirect ecosystem effects is methodologically challenging but important for understanding ecosystem functioning. Still, there are few examples of apparent competition from pelagic marine environments. Using state-space statistical modeling, we here provide evidence for apparent competition between two dominant zooplankton groups in a large marine ecosystem, i.e., krill and copepods in the Barents Sea. This effect is mediated by a positive association between krill biomass and survival of the main planktivorous fish in the Barents Sea, capelin Mallotus villosus, and a negative association between capelin and copepod biomasses. The biomass of Atlantic krill species is expected to increase in the Barents Sea due to ongoing climate change, thereby potentially negatively affecting copepods through apparent competition. By demonstrating and quantifying apparent competition in a large marine ecosystem, our study paves the way for more realistic projections of indirect ecosystem effects of climate change and harvesting.

Variations in physical conditions caused by climate change are likely to have large influences on marine organisms, including phytoplankton. Here, we investigated associations between satellite-derived chlorophyll a data from the Barents Sea and 2 key abiotic factors: sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Specifically, we investigated how climate variability, through the measured physical factors, associated with phytoplankton phenology between 1998 and 2014. Associations between sea surface temperature and phytoplankton bloom dynamics differed depending on the area. The spring phytoplankton bloom occurred earlier and had higher magnitude in warm compared to cold years in the northern part of the Barents Sea, but there was no significant association in the southern part. In seasonally ice-covered regions, the association between the timing of the sea-ice retreat and the phytoplankton peak was nonlinear: sea-ice retreat time before mid-May was not associated with bloom timing, whereas the phytoplankton bloom occurred before or immediately following the ice retreat when the ice retreated after mid-May. Although drivers that are relatively constant across years, such as insolation, probably influenced the spatial gradient in chlorophyll, a space-for-time substitution captured the predicted effects of sea-ice retreat on the timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton bloom quite well.