Variations in physical conditions caused by climate change are likely to have large influences on marine organisms, including phytoplankton. Here, we investigated associations between satellite-derived chlorophyll a data from the Barents Sea and 2 key abiotic factors: sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Specifically, we investigated how climate variability, through the measured physical factors, associated with phytoplankton phenology between 1998 and 2014. Associations between sea surface temperature and phytoplankton bloom dynamics differed depending on the area. The spring phytoplankton bloom occurred earlier and had higher magnitude in warm compared to cold years in the northern part of the Barents Sea, but there was no significant association in the southern part. In seasonally ice-covered regions, the association between the timing of the sea-ice retreat and the phytoplankton peak was nonlinear: sea-ice retreat time before mid-May was not associated with bloom timing, whereas the phytoplankton bloom occurred before or immediately following the ice retreat when the ice retreated after mid-May. Although drivers that are relatively constant across years, such as insolation, probably influenced the spatial gradient in chlorophyll, a space-for-time substitution captured the predicted effects of sea-ice retreat on the timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton bloom quite well.
Abstract. Arctic amplification of global warming has accelerated mass loss of Arctic land ice over the past decades and led to increased freshwater discharge into glacier fjords and adjacent seas. Glacier freshwater discharge is typically associated with high sediment load which limits the euphotic depth but may also aid to provide surface waters with essential nutrients, thus having counteracting effects on marine productivity. In situ observations from a few measured fjords across the Arctic indicate that glacier fjords dominated by marine-terminating glaciers are typically more productive than those with only land-terminating glaciers. Here we combine chlorophyll a from satellite ocean color, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass, with glacier meltwater runoff from climatic mass-balance modeling to establish a statistical model of summertime phytoplankton dynamics in Svalbard (mid-June to September). Statistical analysis reveals significant and positive spatiotemporal associations of chlorophyll a with glacier runoff for 7 out of 14 primary hydrological regions but only within 10 km distance from the shore. These seven regions consist predominantly of the major fjord systems of Svalbard. The adjacent land areas are characterized by a wide range of total glacier coverage (35.5 % to 81.2 %) and fraction of marine-terminating glacier area (40.2 % to 87.4 %). We find that an increase in specific glacier-runoff rate of 10 mm water equivalent per 8 d period raises summertime chlorophyll a concentrations by 5.2 % to 20.0 %, depending on the region. During the annual peak discharge we estimate that glacier runoff increases chlorophyll a by 13.1 % to 50.2 % compared to situations with no runoff. This suggests that glacier runoff is an important factor sustaining summertime phytoplankton production in Svalbard fjords, in line with findings from several fjords in Greenland. In contrast, for regions bordering open coasts, and beyond 10 km distance from the shore, we do not find significant associations of chlorophyll a with runoff. In these regions, physical ocean and sea-ice variables control chlorophyll a, pointing at the importance of a late sea-ice breakup in northern Svalbard, as well as the advection of Atlantic water masses along the West Spitsbergen Current for summertime phytoplankton dynamics. Our method allows for the investigation and monitoring of glacier-runoff effects on primary production throughout the summer season and is applicable on a pan-Arctic scale, thus complementing valuable but scarce in situ measurements in both space and time.
During the past decades, many high-latitude marine systems have experienced a strong warming trend with poorly understood consequences for trophic coupling and ecosystem functioning. A key knowledge gap is how timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms influence higher trophic levels. We investigated associations between timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms and dynamics of 3 size fractions of mesozooplankton from 1998 to 2019. The study focused on the southwestern Barents Sea, an Arctic shelf sea area that is dominated by relatively warm Atlantic waters and which remains ice-free year-round. Results showed that an early spring bloom (late April to early May) was associated with high biomass of medium-sized (1-2 mm) zooplankton in areas ‘downstream’ of the phytoplankton bloom, along the prevailing currents. Conversely, a late spring bloom was associated with high biomass of small-sized (0.180-1 mm) zooplankton, with no spatial shift. High peak magnitude of the bloom (>5 mg chl a m-3) was associated with low zooplankton biomass, suggesting either top-down control or that the zooplankton utilized intense and presumably short blooms inefficiently. For small- and large-sized (>2 mm) zooplankton, the relationship was nonlinear, as zooplankton biomass was also low when bloom peak magnitude was very low (<4 mg chl a m-3). Our findings imply that if phytoplankton blooms in the region occur earlier, this will increase the biomass of medium-sized zooplankton that are important prey for planktivorous fishes. Moreover, our study highlights that increased biomass of phytoplankton does not necessarily translate into increased zooplankton biomass.
The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.
BackgroundThe global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, and cross-country and cross-period variation in COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) has not been clarified. Here, we aimed to identify the country-specific effects of booster vaccination and other features that may affect heterogeneity in age-adjusted CFRs with a worldwide scope, and to predict the benefit of increasing booster vaccination rate on future CFR.MethodCross-temporal and cross-country variations in CFR were identified in 32 countries using the latest available database, with multi-feature (vaccination coverage, demographic characteristics, disease burden, behavioral risks, environmental risks, health services and trust) using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). After that, country-specific risk features that affect age-adjusted CFRs were identified. The benefit of booster on age-adjusted CFR was simulated by increasing booster vaccination by 1–30% in each country.ResultsOverall COVID-19 age-adjusted CFRs across 32 countries ranged from 110 deaths per 100,000 cases to 5,112 deaths per 100,000 cases from February 4, 2020 to Jan 31, 2022, which were divided into countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs and countries with age-adjusted CFRs lower than the crude CFRs (n = 9 and n = 23) when compared with the crude CFR. The effect of booster vaccination on age-adjusted CFRs becomes more important from Alpha to Omicron period (importance scores: 0.03–0.23). The Omicron period model showed that the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR are low GDP per capita and low booster vaccination rates, while the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR were high dietary risks and low physical activity. Increasing booster vaccination rates by 7% would reduce CFRs in all countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs.ConclusionBooster vaccination still plays an important role in reducing age-adjusted CFRs, while there are multidimensional concurrent risk factors and precise joint intervention strategies and preparations based on country-specific risks are also essential.
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