Relationships between drought indices and fire danger outputs are examined to (1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California–Nevada Drought Early Warning System and (2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E0) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger outputs were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E0 (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E0 decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E0 (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.
Climate change is expected to profoundly alter the growing conditions of agricultural crops, potentially causing decline in food production in several parts of the world. A switch from crops and crop varieties currently grown to others that are better adapted to new environmental conditions has been suggested as one possible adaptation strategy. While research has documented the upward migration of wild species linked to recent warming in mountain environments, there has been little empirical research on corresponding shifts in the ranges of cultivated species. This study examines changes in the elevation of maize cultivation on the slopes of Mt. Cotacachi, a volcano located in the Northern Ecuadorian highlands. The results show that during the past two decades, farmers in four communities have expanded maize cultivation an estimated 200-300 m in elevation, linked to their observations of climatic and environmental change. This suggests that in tropical mountain regions like the Andes that exhibit closely stacked agroecological zones, the upward movement of local crops and crop varieties constitutes one feasible locally based adaptive response to changes in growing conditions induced by global warming.
Climate change is projected to substantially alter the hydrological cycles of mountainous regions, with pronounced consequences for the human settlements in these areas. Because projections of climatic changes and their environmental and societal impacts in local settings are uncertain, policies to reduce vulnerability and strengthen adaptation should be informed by ongoing processes in sites already exposed to climatic variability and change. This paper examines vulnerability to hydrological change in Northern Ecuador and shows how access to irrigation water mediates the ability of different groups of farmers to adapt. We argue that present vulnerabilities need to be understood in the context of the history of resource rights distribution in the area and that agricultural adaptation would be aided by a reform of current water rights, allowing water resources to be more equitably distributed.
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