Inbreeding depression is a major driver of mating system evolution and has critical implications for population viability. Theoretical and empirical attention has been paid to predicting how inbreeding depression varies with population size. Lower inbreeding depression is predicted in small populations at equilibrium, primarily due to higher inbreeding rates facilitating purging and/or fixation of deleterious alleles (drift load), but predictions at demographic and genetic disequilibrium are less clear. In this study, we experimentally evaluate how lifetime inbreeding depression and drift load, estimated by heterosis, vary with census (N ) and effective (estimated as genetic diversity, H ) population size across six populations of the biennial Sabatia angularis as well as present novel models of inbreeding depression and heterosis under varying demographic scenarios at disequilibrium (fragmentation, bottlenecks, disturbances). Our experimental study reveals high average inbreeding depression and heterosis across populations. Across our small sample, heterosis declined with H , as predicted, whereas inbreeding depression did not vary with H and actually decreased with N . Our theoretical results demonstrate that inbreeding depression and heterosis levels can vary widely across populations at disequilibrium despite similar H and highlight that joint demographic and genetic dynamics are key to predicting patterns of genetic load in nonequilibrium systems.

We investigate the joint effects of gene flow and selfing on the level of inbreeding depression, heterosis and genetic load in a subdivided population at equilibrium. Low gene flow reduces inbreeding depression and substantially increases heterosis. However, in highly self-fertilizing populations, inbreeding depression is independent of the amount of gene flow. When migration occurs via pollen, consanguinity of the reproductive system could have a negative influence on subpopulation persistence, in contrast to the case of isolated populations. However, with only seed migration, genetic load and heterosis depend mildly on the mating system. From an evolutionary point of view, we reach two main conclusions: first, outcrossing is selected for if gene flow is low; second, intermediate levels of gene flow could promote mixed mating systems, especially when migration occurs through pollen.

-We assessed the expected relationship between the level and the cost of inbreeding, measured either in terms of fitness, inbreeding depression or probability of extinction. First, we show that the assumption of frequent, slightly deleterious mutations do agree with observations and experiments, on the contrary to the assumption of few, moderately deleterious mutations. For the same inbreeding coefficient, populations can greatly differ in fitness according to the following: (i) population size; larger populations show higher fitness (ii) the history of population size; in a population that recovers after a bottleneck, higher inbreeding can lead to higher fitness and (iii) population demography; population growth rate and carrying capacity determine the relationship between inbreeding and extinction. With regards to the relationship between inbreeding depression and inbreeding coefficient, the population size that minimizes inbreeding depression depends on the level of inbreeding: inbreeding depression can even decrease when population size increases. It is therefore clear that to infer the costs of inbreeding, one must know both the history of inbreeding (e.g. past bottlenecks) and population demography.inbreeding / extinction / conservation / genetic load / deleterious mutation

Although ex situ conservation is indispensable for thousands of species, captive breeding is associated with negative genetic changes: loss of genetic variance and genetic adaptation to captivity that is deleterious in the wild. We used quantitative genetic individual-based simulations to model the effect of genetic management on the evolution of a quantitative trait and the associated fitness of wild-born individuals that are brought to captivity. We also examined the feasibility of the breeding strategies under a scenario of a large number of loci subject to deleterious mutations. We compared two breeding strategies: repeated half-sib mating and a method of minimizing mean coancestry (referred to as gc/mc). Our major finding was that halfsib mating is more effective in reducing genetic adaptation to captivity than the gc/mc method. Moreover, half-sib mating retains larger allelic and adaptive genetic variance. Relative to initial standing variation, the additive variance of the quantitative trait increased under half-sib mating during the sojourn in captivity. Although fragmentation into smaller populations improves the efficiency of the gc/mc method, half-sib mating still performs better in the scenarios tested. Half-sib mating shows two caveats that could mitigate its beneficial effects: low heterozygosity and high risk of extinction when populations are of low fecundity and size and one of the following conditions are met: (i) the strength of selection in captivity is comparable with that in the wild, (ii) deleterious mutations are numerous and only slightly deleterious. Experimental validation of half-sib mating is therefore needed for the advancement of captive breeding programs.

We assess the relative importance of migration rate, size and number of subpopulations on the genetic load of subdivided populations. Using diffusion approximations, we show that in most cases subdivision has detrimental effects on fitness. Moreover, our results suggest that fitness increases with subpopulation size, so that for the same total population size, genetic load is relatively lower when there are a small number of large subpopulations. Using elasticity analysis, we show that the size of the subpopulations appears to be the parameter that most strongly determines genetic load. Interconnecting subpopulations via migration would also be of importance for population fitness when subpopulations are small and gene flow is low. Interestingly, the number of subpopulations has minor influence on genetic load except for the case of both very slightly deleterious mutations and small subpopulations. Elasticities decrease as the magnitude of deleterious effects increases. In other words, population structure does not matter for very deleterious alleles, but strongly affects fitness for slightly deleterious alleles.