SummaryIn this paper, we develop a method to assess the environmental impacts of metal scenarios. The method is life cycle based, but enables forward looking and upscaling. The method aims at translating metal demand scenarios into technology-specific supply scenarios, necessary to make the translation into environmental impacts. To illustrate the different steps of the methodology, we apply it to the case of seven major metals. Demand scenarios for seven major metals are taken from literature. We translate those into technology-specific supply scenarios, and future time series of environmental impacts are specified including recycling rates, energy system transformation, efficiency improvement, and ore grade decline. We show that the method is applicable and may lead to relevant and, despite many uncertainties, fairly robust results. The projections show that the environmental impacts related to metal production are expected to increase steeply. Iron is responsible for the majority of impacts and emissions are relatively unaffected by changes in the production and energy system. For the other metals, the energy transition may have substantial benefits. By far, the most effective option for all metals appears to be to increase the share of secondary production. This would reduce emissions, but is expected to become effective only in the second half of the twenty-first century. The circular economy agenda for metals is therefore a long-term agenda, similar to climate change: Action must be taken soon while benefits will become apparent only at the long term.
Utilisation of resources is closely linked to population growth and economic and technological development. Hence, it is expected that global resource demand will increase substantially over the next decades. This resource challenge is currently partly addressed by the UNEP-IRP resource scenario activity, where metals, non-metallic minerals, and biomass resource availability and consumption scenarios are being developed. Advancements in the understanding of environmental impacts induced by anthropogenic activities indicate that large-scale exploitation of metal resources adversely affects the natural environment. Global copper demand is expected to grow significantly over the next decades, which is likely to result in increasing environmental stress and can be problematic for efforts to reduce the global environmental footprint. This research aims to estimate environmental implications of copper demand scenarios from present to mid-century by applying a life cycle sustainability analysis (LCSA) methodology. The results indicate that the environmental impacts related to global copper supply are expected to increase substantially between 2010 and 2050e.g., the carbon footprint is estimated to increase by 100% to 200%, depending on the scenario. This research discusses the main drivers of growing environmental implications of global copper supply scenarios and shows potential focus areas for mitigation policies.
Because the biosphere is highly heterogeneous,
species diversity
impacts are typically assessed at local or regional scales. Because
regional species richness impact metrics refer to different species
compositions, they cannot be easily compared or aggregated to global
impacts. Translating regional species richness impacts into global
impacts allows for comparisons between impacts and facilitates the
estimation of global species extinctions. This requires a conversion
(or weighting) factor that takes into account the characteristics
of regionally specific species compositions. We developed a methodology
for deriving such conversion factors based on species’ habitat
ranges, International Union for Conservation of Nature threat levels,
and species richness. We call these conversion factors global extinction
probabilities (GEPs) of the reference location or region. The proposed
methodology allows for the calculation of GEPs for any spatial unit
and species group for which data on spatial distribution are available
and can be implemented in methodologies like life cycle impact assessment.
Furthermore, the GEPs can be used for the identification of conservation
hot spots. The results of the proposed GEPs (for various taxonomic
groups) show that the risk that regional species loss may result in
global species extinctions significantly differs per region and informs
where irreversible biodiversity impacts are more likely to occur.
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