IntroductionThe use of modelling and simulation (M&S) is becoming more pervasive throughout the NATO defence environment. Simulation models use a variety of techniques, which have evolved from system dynamics, information science and operations research (OR). There are closed simulations, without human interaction, which are used primarily for research and analysis. At the other end of the spectrum there are interactive simulations with considerably active participation of operators performing, in general, the human decision making process. The latter type has been the mainstay of experimental gaming or war gaming in the past, but is now finding increasing application in the computer-assisted exercises (CAX). Thus, it can be argued that, not only are simulation models and applications expanding, but that their associated techniques can be applied across the full spectrum of functional activities of armed forces.While the use of modelling and simulation for military purposes is expanding, recent work by the NATO Steering Group for Modelling and Simulation has demonstrated that most applications in the NATO nations have been developed by individual organisations to meet the explicit needs of a particular user community; are not integral to operational systems; take too long to build and cost too much; can not be used in concert and are not fully validated. The consequence was the proposal to develop and apply standards and interoperability procedures as provided by the High Level Architecture (HLA). 1M&S is an essential component for any intellectual behaviour. Human knowledge and intellect are based on the ability to create and manipulate models either cognitive or concrete, as an individual or in groups. The collection of information and the systematic creation of an image, model paradigm or construction, which represents a part of the real environment, are fundamental for the development of intellect. Only by experimenting or manipulating these representations in a goal-oriented, more or 20Modelling and Simulation in Defence less systematic approach, it is possible to determine those solutions, which comply with the desired objectives. The intellectual search for best solutions is always based on trial and error application of models. Learning is possible only by making mistakes but this should not be done with a real system of high value or with processes, leading to catastrophic situations. Therefore, only models, which permit the necessary simulations and experiments, are means for finding best solutions.With the quantum leap in the technical and methodological evolution characterised by digital information systems, modelling and simulation is contributing in high synergy to this development. Although the principles of experimenting in knowledge gathering on the basis of replicas of real systems are as old as the human intellect, models and simulations with digital computers have developed during the last few decades. The disciplines of natural sciences, in particular those with a quantitative and logical ap...
During the period of preparation for membership and accession to NATO, the administration of the security sector in Bulgaria had very limited access to expertise and tools to support decision making on key functions for the effective management of defense, such as long-term force planning, operations planning, and acquisition management. The institutes that had been responsible for such tasks were closed down as part of the downsizing of the defense establishment in the 1990s. A small number of researchers and analysts were transferred to other defense organizations, primarily to the Defense Advanced Research Institute (DARI), which is part of the "G.S. Rakovski" Defense and Staff College (DSC) in Sofia. Institutes of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) employed others. The Operations Research (OR) Department in the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics in the BAS was primarily oriented toward theoretical studies and teaching. Some of the legacy software tools for decision support and Computer Assisted Exercises (CAX) packages were also available in DARI, but the level of connection between this institute and the larger civilian operations research community was limited. This was all that allowed Bulgaria to preserve a limited capacity to support defense decision making, but there were no opportunities to develop new methodologies and tools to address the new challenges to security and the needs of other security sector organizations. Given the lack of infrastructure and the limited access to security organizations, the small Bulgarian operations analysis (OA) community has not been utilized effectively to address the security challenges of the twenty-first century. Thus, Bulgaria faced considerable challenges in defining its defense requirements as a member of NATO, and later of the EU, developing affordable and interoperable capabilities, promoting inter-agency cooperation, and assuring effective and transparent financial, planning, and resource allocation procedures. 1 At the same time, operations research, modeling, and simulation are an area of active research worldwide with a wide spectrum of applications, including planning, decision support, and conducting exercises. In addition, with the rapid developments in information technology during the past two decades, the methodology of modeling gained an increasingly prominent role in military, economics, social affairs, industry, education and other domains. * The paper reflects Bulgaria's experience in implementing a capacity-building research project, entitled "Operations Research Support to Force and Operations Planning in the New Security Environment," sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace Program. The authors of this paper are project co-directors. Detailed reports are available at www.gcmarshall.bg/ sfp981149. 1 All these are included among the PAP-DIB objectives.
With this report I am describing a US-German project that was worked on from 1983-1992 and which, from today's point of view, seems to be worth revisiting in its essential points. The general goal of the project was to provide analytical support to decisions on the conventional defense capability of the NATO armed forces in Central Europe and the political-strategic debate on deploying medium-range nuclear missiles. An important aspect was the consideration of the paradoxical situation of a possible use of tactical-nuclear battlefield weapons with the associated escalation risks and the hoped-for deterrent effect in the strategic area. One of the foundations was the analytical use of quantitative simulation models and methods that were already relatively mature at the time for the reproducible calculation of a conventionally conducted attack of the Warsaw Pact with a likely focus on Central Europe. The main results were the type of cooperation and the structure of the analyses, the evidence of the usefulness of simulation models and, last but not least, the development of common goals, especially in phases of great upheaval such as the end of the Soviet system.
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