Throughout interior Alaska (U.S.A.), a gradual warming trend in mean monthly temperatures occurred over the last few decades (approximatlely 2-4 degrees C). The accompanying increases in woody vegetation at many alpine treeline (hereafter treeline) locations provided an opportunity to examine how biotic and abiotic local site conditions interact to control tree establishment patterns during warming. We devised a landscape ecological approach to investigate these relationships at an undisturbed treeline in the Alaska Range. We identified treeline changes between 1953 (aerial photography) and 2005 (satellite imagery) in a geographic information system (GIS) and linked them with corresponding local site conditions derived from digital terrain data, ancillary climate data, and distance to 1953 trees. Logistic regressions enabled us to rank the importance of local site conditions in controlling tree establishment. We discovered a spatial transition in the importance of tree establishment controls. The biotic variable (proximity to 1953 trees) was the most important tree establishment predictor below the upper tree limit, providing evidence of response lags with the abiotic setting and suggesting that tree establishment is rarely in equilibrium with the physical environment or responding directly to warming. Elevation and winter sun exposure were important predictors of tree establishment at the upper tree limit, but proximity to trees persisted as an important tertiary predictor, indicating that tree establishment may achieve equilibrium with the physical environment. However, even here, influences from the biotic variable may obscure unequivocal correlations with the abiotic setting (including temperature). Future treeline expansion will likely be patchy and challenging to predict without considering the spatial variability of influences from biotic and abiotic local site conditions.

Questions: Does tree establishment: (1) occur at a treeline depressed by fire, (2) cause the forest line to ascend upslope, and/or (3) alter landscape heterogeneity? (4) What abiotic and biotic local site conditions are most important in structuring establishment patterns? (5) Does the abiotic setting become more important with increasing upslope distance from the forest line? Location: Western slopes of Mount Rainier, USA. Methods: We performed classification analysis of 1970 satellite imagery and 2003 aerial photography to delineate establishment. Local site conditions were calculated from a LIDAR‐based DEM, ancillary climate data, and 1970 tree locations in a GIS. We used logistic regression on a spatially weighted landscape matrix to rank variables. Results: Considerable establishment after 1970 caused forest line elevation to increase over 150 m in specific locations. Landscape heterogeneity increased with distance from the 1970 forest line. At a broad spatial context, we found establishment was most common near existing trees (0‐50 m) and at low elevations (1250‐1350 m). Slope aspect (W, NW, N, NE, and E), slope angle (40‐60°), and other abiotic factors emerged as important predictors of establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line to restricted spatial extents. Conclusions: Favorable climatic conditions likely triggered widespread tree establishment. Readily available seed probably enhanced establishment rates near sexually mature trees, particularly in the less stressful environment at low elevations. The mass effect of nearly ubiquitous establishment in these areas may have obscured the importance of the abiotic setting to restricted spatial extents. Topographic variability apparently produced favorable sites that facilitated opportunistic establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line, thereby enabling additional trees to invade the alpine tundra.

Ice storms (major freezing rain events) periodically disturb forests in eastern NorthAmerica. The damage may vary spatially, especially in complex terrain. This study uses satellite imagery to investigate spatial heterogeneity of forest damage caused by ice storms that affected the Appalachian Mountains, Virginia during 1994. The results display a region-scale (southwest-to-northeast) gradient in damage that apparently corresponds to a gradient in the depth of ice that accumulated during the storms. Damage also varied topographically, particularly by aspect. Damage was most extensive on east-, southeast-and south-facing slopes; at middle elevations; and on slopes of moderate steepness.

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