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The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is one of the most examined deltas in the world given its dynamics, complexity, and vulnerability. In the past decades, the VMD has changed rapidly, especially the land use in relation with the socioeconomic development.National policy has profoundly influenced these changes and the changes have significantly affected local livelihoods. However, these changes are not well reported systematically. In this study, we investigate land-use changes based on institutional analyses across multiple scales, that is, from national, provincial, to local livelihood based on institutional and sustainability analysis. The results show a strong relationship between legal settings over the last 30 years on land use and livelihood transitions. In addition, the constraints of implementing national legal frameworks at provincial level in practice were identified including effects to local livelihoods. We offer some recommendations for sustainable livelihoods in the VMD, with a focus on increasing socioecological resilience. K E Y W O R D S agriculture development, land law, land-use change, sustainable livelihood, Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Systemic threats to food‐energy‐environment‐water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision‐makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social‐ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision‐making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

PurposeThe Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMD) is one of the most affected deltas by climate change in the world. Several studies have investigated factors influencing farmers' climate change adaptation behaviors in the region; however, little is known about the effectiveness of such measures. This paper examines the determinants of adaptation strategies among VMD rice farmers and assesses the impacts of such practices on rice yield.Design/methodology/approachEndogenous switching regressions were employed using a survey data of 300 rice-producing households in An Giang and Tra Vinh provinces in 2016.FindingsThe results show that farmers receiving early disaster warnings are more likely to adopt adaptation measures to climate change. If nonadaptors had chosen to respond, their rice yield would have increased by 0.932 tons/ha/season.Research limitations/implicationsThe data sample is small and collected from two provinces in the VMD only; therefore, the results may be specific for the study sites. However, future research can adopt the proposed method for other regions.Originality/valueThe study estimates the production impacts of farmers' decisions on whether or not to adapt to extreme climate events. The proposed approach allows for capturing both observed and unobserved behaviors.

Agricultural land protection (ALP) is a standard policy response to a desire for food security. However, ALP may result in a misallocation of resources. Examining rice land policy in Vietnam, we determine the optimal level of rice land protected against other crops using a stochastic optimization model built on top of a general equilibrium framework, combined with sequential micro-simulations on household data. We find that converting part of protected rice land enhances economic efficiency. Nonetheless, the policy is relatively pro-rich, implying a trade-off between poverty reduction and economic efficiency, making some households in already poor areas worse off. Our approach can be applied to land-use planning generally, highlighting the relevant tradeoffs and the search for needed optimal land-use policies.

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Agricultural land protection (ALP) is a standard policy response to growing food security concerns driven by urbanisation, population growth and uncertainty over climate change. However, if not supported by rigorous analysis, at least in terms of the correct scale of protection, ALP may result in a misallocation of resources, hampering economic efficiency and prosperity. Examining rice land policy in Vietnam, this paper aims to determine the optimal level of rice land protected against other crops and evaluates the impact of adopting the optimal policy. With a stochastic optimization model built on top of a computable general equilibrium framework and microsimulation techniques, applied to Vietnam's social accounting matrix and household survey data, we find that converting part of protected rice land into other crops enhances economic efficiency. While the efficiency gain could amount to billions of dollars, income inequality only improves slightly. Overall, the policy is relatively pro-rich, implying a trade-off between poverty reduction and economic efficiency for Vietnam, making some households in already poor areas worse off. Though calibrated to a specific case, our approach can be applied in land-use planning generally, highlighting the relevant tradeoffs and the search for needed optimal land-use policies.

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