Reliable energy forecasting helps managers to prepare future budgets for their buildings. Therefore, a simple, easier, less time consuming and reliable forecasting model which could be used for different types of buildings is desired. In this paper, we have presented a forecasting model based on five years of real data sets for one dependent variable (the daily electricity consumption) and six explanatory variables (ambient temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, weekday index and building type). A single mathematical equation for forecasting daily electricity usage of university buildings has been developed using the Multiple Regression (MR) technique. Data of two such buildings, located at the Southwark Campus of London South Bank University in London, have been used for this study. The predicted test results of MR model are examined and judged against real electricity consumption data of both buildings for year 2011. The results demonstrate that out of six explanatory variables, three variables; surrounding temperature, weekday index and building type have significant influence on buildings energy consumption. The results of this model are associated with a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 12% for the administrative building and 13% for the academic building. Finally, some limitations of this study have also been discussed.
India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh (IPB) are the largest South Asian countries in terms of land area, gross domestic product (GDP), and population. The growth in these countries is impacted by inadequate renewable energy policy and implementation over the years, resulting in slow progress towards human development and economic sustainability. These developing countries are blessed with huge potential for renewable energy resources; however, they still heavily rely on fossil fuels (93%). IPB is a major contributor to the total energy consumption of the world and its most energy-intensive building sector (India 47%, Pakistan 55% and Bangladesh 55%) displays inadequate energy performance. This paper comprehensively reviews the energy mix and consumption in IPB with special emphasis on current policies and its impact on economic and human development. The main performance indicators have been critically analyzed for the period 1970–2017. The strength of this paper is a broad overview on energy and development of energy integration in major South Asian countries. Furthermore, it presents a broad deepening on the main sector of energy consumption, i.e., the building sector. The paper also particularly analyzes the existing buildings energy efficiency codes and policies, with specific long-term recommendations to improve average energy consumption per person. The study also examines the technical and regulatory barriers and recommends specific measures to adapt renewable technologies, with special attention to policies affecting energy consumption. The analysis and results are general and can be applied to other developing countries of the world.
Abstract:The building sector consumes about 40% of the world's primary energy. Seasonal climatic conditions have a significant effect on the energy consumption in buildings. One of the famous methods used for decoding this seasonal variation in buildings energy consumption is the "Degree Days Method". Data has been widely published for the heating and cooling degree days of different countries. Unfortunately, there is very limited and outdated published data for the heating and cooling degree-days of Pakistan. In this study, yearly average heating and cooling degree-days for different regions of Pakistan are established by using 30 year long-term measured data for different base temperatures. The data is presented in tables and figures whereas heating and cooling degree-day maps of Pakistan have been developed.
The temperature of the photovoltaic module has an adverse effect on the performance of photovoltaic modules. The photovoltaic module converts a small portion of energy from solar radiations into electricity while the remaining energy wastes in the form of heat. In this study, water cooled photovoltaic/thermal system was analyzed to enhance the efficiency by absorbing the heat generated by the photovoltaic modules and allowing the photovoltaic module to work at comparatively low temperature. For this system, four photovoltaic modules of two different types were used. To investigate the cooling effect, two modules were modified by making ducts at their back surface having inlet and outlet manifolds for water-flow. The measurements were taken with cooling and without cooling of photovoltaic modules. The temperature was measured at inlet, outlet, and at different points at the back of photovoltaic modules. It was found that there was a linear trend between the module efficiency and temperature. The average module temperature of c-Si and p-Si modules without cooling was 13.6% and 7.2% lower, respectively, than the same modules without cooling. As a result of temperature drop, the average module electrical efficiency of c-Si and p-Si was 13% and 6.2% higher, respectively, compared to the modules without cooling. Flowing water also gains useful heat from photovoltaic module so the resultant overall energy of the system was much higher.
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