Early warning systems for outbreak detection is a challenge topic for researchers in the epidemiology and biomedical informatics fields. We are proposing a new method for detecting disease epidemics using a symptom-based approach. The data was collected from developed mobile applications which include users' demographic information and a list of chief complaint symptoms. Deliberated outbreaks are differentiated from seasonal outbreak by specific symptoms that represent a sign of infection. These symptoms were grouped, classified, and then converted to a time-series digital signal using the consensus scoring approach. Through the syndromic grouping method, the system digitized each data package into a single independent variable that is ready for further one-dimensional signal processing to predict disease outbreaks in the future.
This study aims to identify and evaluate a robust and replicable public health predictive model that can be applied to the COVID-19 time-series dataset, and to compare the model performance after performing the 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day forecast interval. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated using a Thailand COVID-19 open dataset from 1 December 2021 to 30 April 2022, during the Omicron variant outbreak. The SARIMA model with a non-statistically significant p-value of the Ljung–Box test, the lowest AIC, and the lowest RMSE was selected from the top five candidates for model validation. The selected models were validated using the 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day forward-chaining cross validation method. The model performance matrix for each forecast interval was evaluated and compared. The case fatality rate and mortality rate of the COVID-19 Omicron variant were estimated from the best performance model. The study points out the importance of different time interval forecasting that affects the model performance.
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