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Many northern lake‐rich regions are undergoing pronounced hydrological change, yet inadequate knowledge of the drivers of these landscape‐scale responses hampers our ability to predict future conditions. We address this challenge in the thermokarst landscape of Old Crow Flats (OCF) using a combination of remote sensing imagery and monitoring of stable isotope compositions of lake waters over three thaw seasons (2007–2009). Quantitative analysis confirmed that the hydrological behavior of lakes is strongly influenced by catchment vegetation and physiography. Catchments of snowmelt‐dominated lakes, typically located in southern peripheral areas of OCF, encompass high proportions of woodland/forest and tall shrub vegetation (mean percent land cover = ca. 60%). These land cover types effectively capture snow and generate abundant snowmelt runoff that offsets lake water evaporation. Rainfall‐dominated lakes that are not strongly influenced by evaporation are typically located in eastern and northern OCF where their catchments have higher proportions of dwarf shrub/herbaceous and sparse vegetation (ca. 45%), as well as surface water (ca. 20%). Evaporation‐dominated lakes, are located in the OCF interior where their catchments are distinguished by substantially higher lake area to catchment area ratios (LA/CA = ca. 29%) compared to low evaporation‐influenced rainfall‐dominated (ca. 10%) and snowmelt‐dominated (ca. 4%) lakes. Lakes whose catchments contain >75% combined dwarf shrub/herbaceous vegetation and surface water are most susceptible to evaporative lake‐level drawdown, especially following periods of low precipitation. Findings indicate that multiple hydrological trajectories are probable in response to climate‐driven changes in precipitation amount and seasonality, vegetation composition, and thermokarst processes. These will likely include a shift to greater snowmelt influence in catchments experiencing expansion of tall shrubs, greater influence from evaporation in catchments having higher proportions of surface water, and an increase in the rate of thermokarst lake expansion and probability of drainage. Local observations suggest that some of these changes are already underway.

Growing evidence indicates that lake-dominated ecosystems at high latitudes are undergoing significant hydrological changes. Research examining these changes is complicated because both thermokarst and climatic processes likely influence lake dynamics. To examine the relative impacts of these processes in permafrost landscapes, we investigated the dynamics of lake area and number in Old Crow Flats (OCF), Yukon using historical air photos and satellite imagery. Between 1951 and 2007, OCF experienced a decline of~6000 ha in total lake area but gained 232 lakes. Close to half (49%) of the difference in lake area was driven by the rapid and persistent drainage of 38 large lakes. These catastrophic drainages were associated with new or enlarged outlet channels, resulted in the formation of numerous residual ponds, and were likely driven by thermokarst processes. Our analysis shows that catastrophic lake drainages have become more than 5 times more frequent in recent decades. These changes are likely related to the impacts of increased temperature and precipitation on thermokarst processes. Fifty-nine of the 170 intensively studied lakes showed either large bidirectional fluctuations or gradual cumulative declines. These changes affected a much smaller portion of OCF and were likely driven by interactions between increased precipitation and temperature and individual catchment characteristics. To anticipate landscape-scale changes in these systems, and assess their impact on hydrology, wildlife habitat, and carbon storage, field research is required to better characterize the mechanisms responsible for changes.

Snowmelt is a crucial source of water for many shallow subarctic lakes, but climate models predict that snowfall will decrease in some regions, with profound ecological consequences. Here we use lake water isotope data across gradients of terrestrial vegetation cover (open tundra to closed forest) and topographic relief to identify lakes that are vulnerable to desiccation under conditions of low snowmelt runoff in two subarctic landscapes—Old Crow Flats, Yukon, and Hudson Bay Lowlands, Manitoba (Canada). Lakes located in low‐relief, open tundra catchments in both landscapes displayed a systematic, positive offset between directly measured lake water δ18O over multiple sampling campaigns and lake water δ18O inferred from cellulose in recently deposited surface sediments. We attribute this offset to a strong evaporative 18O‐enrichment response to lower‐than‐average snowmelt runoff in recent years. Notably, some lakes underwent near‐complete desiccation during midsummer 2010 following a winter of very low snowfall. Based on the paleolimnological record of one such lake, the extremely dry conditions in 2010 may be unprecedented in the past ~200 years. Findings fuel concerns that a decrease in snowmelt runoff will lead to widespread desiccation of shallow lakes in these landscapes.

Widespread across northern permafrost landscapes, thermokarst ponds and lakes provide vital wildlife habitat and play a key role in biogeochemical processes. Stored in the sediments of these typically shallow and dynamic waterbodies are rich sources of paleoenvironmental information whose potential has not yet been fully exploited, likely because of concerns over stratigraphic preservation and challenges to develop reliable sediment core chronologies. Here, we present an overview of recently derived informative paleolimnological reconstructions based on multiparameter analysis of sediment archives from permafrost aquatic basins. We include examples from across the Canadian North, Alaska, and Siberia that illustrate their value for providing insights into temporal patterns of lake inception, catchment erosion, aquatic productivity, hydrological evolution, and landscape disturbances. Although not captured in our survey, emerging research directions focused on carbon accumulation, storage, and balance hold much promise for contributing to global climate change science.Key words: thermokarst lakes, permafrost, paleolimnology, lake sediments.Résumé : Répandus d'un paysage de pergélisol septentrional à l'autre, les étangs et les lacs thermokarstiques fournissent un habitat essentiel à la faune et jouent un rôle clé dans les processus biogéochimiques. Accumulées dans les sédiments de ces plans d'eau typiquement peu profonds et dynamiques se trouvent des sources riches en informations paléoenvironne-mentales dont le potentiel n'a pas encore été entièrement exploité, probablement à cause des préoccupations concernant la conservation stratigraphique et les défis de développer des chronologies fiables à partir des carottes sédimentaires. Ici, nous présentons une vue d'ensemble des reconstitutions paléolimnologiques informatives récemment dérivées d'après l'analyse multi paramétrée d'archives de sédiments des bassins aquatiques du pergé-lisol. Nous incluons des exemples provenant du Nord canadien, de l'Alaska et de la Sibérie qui For personal use only.illustrent que ceux-ci peuvent offrir des perspectives sur les tendances temporelles de création de lacs, de l'érosion de bassins versants, de la productivité aquatique, de l'évolution hydrologique et des perturbations du paysage. Bien que non mises en lumière dans notre enquête, les directions de recherche émergentes centrées sur l'accumulation, le stockage et le bilan carbone s'annoncent bien quant à leur contribution à la science du changement climatique mondial.

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Abstract:Recent studies using remote sensing analysis of lake-rich thermokarst landscapes have documented evidence of declining lake surface area in response to recent warming. However, images alone cannot identify whether these declines are due to increasing frequency of lake drainage events associated with accelerated thermokarst activity or to increasing evaporation in response to longer ice-free season duration. Here, we explore the potential of combining aerial photograph time series with paleolimnological analyses to track changes in hydrological conditions of a thermokarst lake in the Old Crow Flats (OCF), Canada, and to identify their causes. Images show that the water level in lake OCF 48 declined markedly sometime between 1972 and 2001. In a sediment core from OCF 48, complacent stratigraphic profiles of several physical, geochemical, and biological parameters from ¾1874-1967 indicate hydro-limnological conditions were relatively stable. From ¾1967-1989, declines in organic matter content, organic carbon isotope values, and pigment concentrations are interpreted to reflect an increase in supply of minerogenic sediment, and subsequent decline in aquatic productivity, caused by increased thermo-erosion of shoreline soils. Lake expansion was likely caused by increased summer rainfall, as recorded by increased cellulose-inferred lake-water oxygen isotope compositions. Stratigraphic trends defining the lake expansion phase terminated at ¾1989, which likely marks the year when the lake drained. Above-average precipitation during the previous year probably raised the lake level and promoted further thermo-erosion of the shoreline soils that caused the lake to drain. These are meteorological conditions that have led to other recent lake-drainage events in the OCF. Thus, the decline in lake level, evident in the aerial photograph from 2001, is unlikely to have been caused by evaporation, but rather is a remnant of a drainage event that took place more than a decade earlier. After drainage, the lake began to refill, and most paleolimnological parameters approach levels that are similar to those during the stable phase. These findings indicate that combined use of aerial images and paleolimnological methods offers much promise for identifying the hydrological consequences of recent climatic variations on thermokarst lakes.