No abstract

Many northern lake‐rich regions are undergoing pronounced hydrological change, yet inadequate knowledge of the drivers of these landscape‐scale responses hampers our ability to predict future conditions. We address this challenge in the thermokarst landscape of Old Crow Flats (OCF) using a combination of remote sensing imagery and monitoring of stable isotope compositions of lake waters over three thaw seasons (2007–2009). Quantitative analysis confirmed that the hydrological behavior of lakes is strongly influenced by catchment vegetation and physiography. Catchments of snowmelt‐dominated lakes, typically located in southern peripheral areas of OCF, encompass high proportions of woodland/forest and tall shrub vegetation (mean percent land cover = ca. 60%). These land cover types effectively capture snow and generate abundant snowmelt runoff that offsets lake water evaporation. Rainfall‐dominated lakes that are not strongly influenced by evaporation are typically located in eastern and northern OCF where their catchments have higher proportions of dwarf shrub/herbaceous and sparse vegetation (ca. 45%), as well as surface water (ca. 20%). Evaporation‐dominated lakes, are located in the OCF interior where their catchments are distinguished by substantially higher lake area to catchment area ratios (LA/CA = ca. 29%) compared to low evaporation‐influenced rainfall‐dominated (ca. 10%) and snowmelt‐dominated (ca. 4%) lakes. Lakes whose catchments contain >75% combined dwarf shrub/herbaceous vegetation and surface water are most susceptible to evaporative lake‐level drawdown, especially following periods of low precipitation. Findings indicate that multiple hydrological trajectories are probable in response to climate‐driven changes in precipitation amount and seasonality, vegetation composition, and thermokarst processes. These will likely include a shift to greater snowmelt influence in catchments experiencing expansion of tall shrubs, greater influence from evaporation in catchments having higher proportions of surface water, and an increase in the rate of thermokarst lake expansion and probability of drainage. Local observations suggest that some of these changes are already underway.

Growing evidence indicates that lake-dominated ecosystems at high latitudes are undergoing significant hydrological changes. Research examining these changes is complicated because both thermokarst and climatic processes likely influence lake dynamics. To examine the relative impacts of these processes in permafrost landscapes, we investigated the dynamics of lake area and number in Old Crow Flats (OCF), Yukon using historical air photos and satellite imagery. Between 1951 and 2007, OCF experienced a decline of~6000 ha in total lake area but gained 232 lakes. Close to half (49%) of the difference in lake area was driven by the rapid and persistent drainage of 38 large lakes. These catastrophic drainages were associated with new or enlarged outlet channels, resulted in the formation of numerous residual ponds, and were likely driven by thermokarst processes. Our analysis shows that catastrophic lake drainages have become more than 5 times more frequent in recent decades. These changes are likely related to the impacts of increased temperature and precipitation on thermokarst processes. Fifty-nine of the 170 intensively studied lakes showed either large bidirectional fluctuations or gradual cumulative declines. These changes affected a much smaller portion of OCF and were likely driven by interactions between increased precipitation and temperature and individual catchment characteristics. To anticipate landscape-scale changes in these systems, and assess their impact on hydrology, wildlife habitat, and carbon storage, field research is required to better characterize the mechanisms responsible for changes.

Snowmelt is a crucial source of water for many shallow subarctic lakes, but climate models predict that snowfall will decrease in some regions, with profound ecological consequences. Here we use lake water isotope data across gradients of terrestrial vegetation cover (open tundra to closed forest) and topographic relief to identify lakes that are vulnerable to desiccation under conditions of low snowmelt runoff in two subarctic landscapes—Old Crow Flats, Yukon, and Hudson Bay Lowlands, Manitoba (Canada). Lakes located in low‐relief, open tundra catchments in both landscapes displayed a systematic, positive offset between directly measured lake water δ18O over multiple sampling campaigns and lake water δ18O inferred from cellulose in recently deposited surface sediments. We attribute this offset to a strong evaporative 18O‐enrichment response to lower‐than‐average snowmelt runoff in recent years. Notably, some lakes underwent near‐complete desiccation during midsummer 2010 following a winter of very low snowfall. Based on the paleolimnological record of one such lake, the extremely dry conditions in 2010 may be unprecedented in the past ~200 years. Findings fuel concerns that a decrease in snowmelt runoff will lead to widespread desiccation of shallow lakes in these landscapes.