This article uses the business management technique of scenario planning to look at how the global order could evolve. It speculates on four 'futures': a continuation of the current order, so that much of what we currently see will continue well into the future ('Steady State'); greater international co-operation via a strengthened United Nations ('World State'); the continued decline of national governments in the running of economies with transnational corporations filling the vacuum ('Earth Inc'); and a breakdown in both the system of nation-states and transnational corporations with greater chaos at the national and international levels ('Wild State'). Scenario planning is not about picking winners (that is, prediction) but in encouraging people to think beyond the current situation. The article is intended to encourage more discussion on the long-term future of global governance.
The process of globalization is now the most important development in world affairs. It is the end of the world order dominated by nation states (or countries) and the beginning of an era in which national governments have to share their power with other entities, most notably transnational corporations (TNCs), inter-governmental organizations (IGOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The process has to be viewed in its long-term historical evolution. Unfortunately, the process was seen as a technical international law issue by most people so there was a lack of attention to ensuring that the process worked for the benefit of all of humanity. The current (belated) controversy, such as the 1999 Battle of Seattle, could be a window of opportunity for NGOs to encourage a more informed public debate on how to create proposals for a better world.
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