The ongoing emission of greenhouse gases is triggering changes in many climate hazards that can impact humanity. We found traceable evidence for 467 pathways in which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure, and security have been recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires, storms, sea level rise, and changes in natural land cover and ocean chemistry. By 2100, the world's population will be exposed concurrently to the equivalent of the largest magnitude in one of these hazards if greenhouse gasses are aggressively reduced or three if they are not, with some tropical coastal areas facing up to six hazards concurrently. These findings highlight that greenhouse gas emissions pose a broad threat to humanity by simultaneously intensifying many hazards that have been harmful to numerous aspects of human life.Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are simultaneously shifting many elements of Earth's climate beyond thresholds that can impact humanity 1 . By affecting the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation, man-made greenhouse gases are increasing the Earth's energy budget ultimately leading to warming 1 . Given interconnected physics, warming can affect other aspects of the Earth's climate system 2 . For instance, by enhancing water evaporation and increasing the air's capacity to hold moisture, warming can lead to drought in commonly dry places, in turn ripening conditions for wildfires and heatwaves when heat transfer from water evaporation ceases. There are opposite responses in commonly humid places where constant evaporation leads to more precipitation, which is commonly followed by floods due to soil saturation. The oceans have the added effect of sea warming, which enhances evaporation and wind speeds, intensifying downpours and the strength of storms, whose surges can be aggravated by sea level rise resulting from the larger volume occupied by warmed water molecules and melting land ice. Other inter-related changes in the ocean include acidification as CO2 mixes with water to form carbonic acid, and reduced oxygen due to warming reducing oxygen solubility and affecting circulation patterns and the mixing of surface waters rich in oxygen with deeper oxygen-poor water. These climate hazards and their impacts on human societies occur naturally but are being nontrivially intensified by man-made greenhouse gas emissions, as demonstrated by an active research on detection and attribution (discussed under Caveats in the Methods section). With few exceptions 3 , changes in these hazards have been studied in isolation whereas impact assessments have commonly focused on specific aspects of human life. Unfortunately, the failure to integrate available information most likely underestimates the impacts of climate change because i) one hazard may be important in one place but not another, ii) strong CO2 reductions may curb some but not all hazards (See Fig. S1), and iii) not all aspects of human systems are equally challenge...
The capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta, faces chronic flooding which has been and will continue to be exacerbated by climate change processes, including sea level rise and increased rainfall. In response to these threats, the government has devised a megaproject solution to flooding which will simultaneously address the problem while enhancing Jakarta's status as a 'world city', improving the economy of the metropolitan region and the country as a whole. However, the so-called Great Garuda project has a number of major flaws. We describe how this project fails to address the root causes of flooding in Jakarta as well as the primary drivers of vulnerability to flooding. We further show how the Great Garuda project is a channel through which politically connected economic elites of the Suharto regime, now marginalized by democratization and decentralization reforms, can reconstitute 'growth coalitions' to benefit from state resources and privileged access to development contracts and concessions. Lastly, we apply and expand on the concept of maladaptation to demonstrate how the project could leave the city and its residents more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than they currently are.
Since the fall of long-time strongman Suharto and his authoritarian 'New Order' government in 1998, Indonesia has embarked upon a series of decentralisation and democratisation reforms. This new era of decentralised politics has come to be known as Reformasi and has significantly altered the political landscape of the archipelago as national and subnational levels of administration continue to contest the balance of power. Indonesia's national parks, which remain under the authority of the national government, have become arenas for negotiated encounters between local resource users, aspiring district elites and the national government. This essay explores three legacies of incomplete and unfinished decentralisation as they related to national-park-based conservation, using Sumatra's Kerinci Seblat National Park as a case study.
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