The results suggest that the eventual cessation of narcotics use is a very slow process, unlikely to occur for some addicts, especially if they have not ceased use by their late 30s.
We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.Hazard Modeling, Survival Analysis, Narcotics Abuse, Methadone Treatment, Public Policy
The effects of treatment and legal supervision on narcotics use and criminal activities were assessed by applying newly developed time-series methods that disentangle the long-term (permanent) and the short-term (temporary) effects of intervention. A multivariate systems approach was used to characterize the dynamic interplay of several related behaviors at a group level over a long period of time. Five variables---abstinence from narcotics use, daily narcotics use (or addiction), property crime, methadone maintenance treatment, and legal supervision---were derived by aggregating information from over 600 narcotic addiction histories averaging 12 years in length. Because of the long assessment period, age was also included as a control variable. Overall, the system dynamics among the variables were characterized by long-term rather than short-term relationships. Neither methadone maintenance nor legal supervision had short-term effects on narcotics use or property crime. Methadone maintenance treatment demonstrated long-term benefits by reducing narcotics use and criminal activities. Legal supervision, on the other hand, did not reduce either narcotics use or property crime in the long run. Instead, there was a positive long-term relationship in which a higher level of legal supervision was related to higher levels of narcotics use and criminal activity. This latter finding is consistent with the observation that either narcotics use or criminal activity is likely to bring addicts to the attention of the legal system. However, these addicts, as a group, did not directly respond to legal supervision by changing their narcotics use or crime involvement except perhaps through coerced treatment. The paper explores the policy implications of these findings.public policy effectiveness, narcotics use, time series analysis, permanent and temporary effects, unit roots
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