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This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany, which is very different from previous recessions, in particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast.However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models.Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts with the best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts during the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is relatively small.
Five-year survival rates of childhood Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) exceed 90%. However, treatment can impair gonadal function and result fertility problems. In effort to reduce late effects, treatment protocols were adapted and gonadotoxic procarbazine was successfully omitted. The current EuroNET-PHL-C2 trial aims to reduce use of radiotherapy by intensifying chemotherapy. Effectivity of HL treatment with OEPA-COPDAC (OEPA: vincristine , etoposide, prednisolone and doxorubicin; COPDAC: cyclophosphamide, vincristine , prednisone and dacarbazine) is compared to intensified OEPA-DECOPDAC chemotherapy (COPDAC with higher cumulative dose of cyclophosphamide and additional doxorubicin and etoposide) in a randomized setting. A fertility study was incorporated in the EuroNET-PHL-C2 study to evaluate gonadotoxicity.
The responsibility for discussion papers lies solely with the individual authors. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IWH. The papers represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion with the authors. Citation of the discussion papers should account for their provisional character; a revised version may be available directly from the authors.Comments and suggestions on the methods and results presented are welcome.
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