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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may

We hypothesise that North–South trade is associated with knowledge spillovers that create labour productivity gains depending on various aspects of Southern absorptive capacity. We use the novel World Input–Output Database (WIOD) that provides bilateral and bisectoral panel data for 39 countries and 35 sectors for 1995–2009. We examine growth in relative South–North labour intensities (South–North convergence) for 31 industrialised source and eight emerging recipient countries. We find strong evidence that various components and individual indicators of absorptive capacity interact with imports of investment goods in such a way that the relative labour intensity is reduced. GMM and GLS estimations corroborate the results. Policies that improve various of the identified aspects of absorptive capacity are more promising than policies that select only one. Elevating the absorptive capacity of emerging economies to the maximum level in the world would halve the South–North gap in labour intensities within a couple of decades if it were solely achieved through the trade channel.

Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy (DLTS) and Double-correlated DLTS (DDLTS) measurements have been conducted on Schottky contacts fabricated on n-type 4H-SiC epilayers using different contact metals in order to separate the EH6- and EH7-centers, which usually appear as a broad double peak in DLTS spectra. The activation energy of EH6(EC- ET(EH6) = 1.203 eV) turns out to be independent of the electric field. As a consequence, EH6is acceptor-like according to the missing Poole-Frenkel effect. Therefore, it can be excluded that the EH6-center and the prominent acceptor-like Z1/2-center belong to different charge states of the same microscopic defect as theoretically suggested. It is proposed that EH6is a complex containing a carbon vacancy and another component available at high concentrations. The activation energy of EH7(EC- ET(EH7) = 1.58 eV) has been evaluated indirectly by fitting the DLTS spectra of the EH6/7double peak taking the previously determined parameters of EH6into account.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We assess the role of capital goods imports and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) as transmission channels through which major emerging economies (BRICs, i.e., Brazil, Russian Federation, India and China) could catch up with advanced source countries in terms of total factor productivity (TFP). We find that the importance of these transmission mechanisms depends on the BRICs' local capacity to absorb superior technologies and on domestic investment. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Non-technical SummaryWe examine variations in the

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Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact that some survey participants employ a rather judgmental approach to forecasting as opposed to using a formal model. We use the distinct numerical accuracies of panelists' reported probabilities as a means to propose several alternative and easily implementable corrections that i) can be carried out in real time, i.e., before outcomes are observed, and ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex-ante and ex-post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the rounding effect. The increase in the share of non-rounded responses in recent years also helps to understand the trajectory of survey-based average uncertainty during the years since the financial and sovereign debt crisis.