The GRACE risk score predicts early and 5 year death and CVD/MI. Five year morbidity and mortality are as high in patients following non-ST MI and UA as seen following STEMI. Their morbidity burden is high (MI, stroke, readmissions) and the substantial late mortality in non-STE ACS is under-recognized. The findings highlight the importance of pursuing novel approaches to diminish long-term risk.

ObjectivesRisk scores are recommended in guidelines to facilitate the management of patients who present with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Internationally, such scores are not systematically used because they are not easy to apply and some risk indicators are not available at first presentation. We aimed to derive and externally validate a more accurate version of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for predicting the risk of death or death/myocardial infarction (MI) both acutely and over the longer term. The risk score was designed to be suitable for acute and emergency clinical settings and usable in electronic devices.Design and settingThe GRACE risk score (2.0) was derived in 32 037 patients from the GRACE registry (14 countries, 94 hospitals) and validated externally in the French registry of Acute ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation MI (FAST-MI) 2005.ParticipantsPatients presenting with ST-elevation and non-ST elevation ACS and with long-term outcomes.Outcome measuresThe GRACE Score (2.0) predicts the risk of short-term and long-term mortality, and death/MI, overall and in hospital survivors.ResultsFor key independent risk predictors of death (1 year), non-linear associations (vs linear) were found for age (p<0.0005), systolic blood pressure (p<0.0001), pulse (p<0.0001) and creatinine (p<0.0001). By employing non-linear algorithms, there was improved model discrimination, validated externally. Using the FAST-MI 2005 cohort, the c indices for death exceeded 0.82 for the overall population at 1 year and also at 3 years. Discrimination for death or MI was slightly lower than for death alone (c=0.78). Similar results were obtained for hospital survivors, and with substitutions for creatinine and Killip class, the model performed nearly as well.ConclusionsThe updated GRACE risk score has better discrimination and is easier to use than the previous score based on linear associations. GRACE Risk (2.0) performed equally well acutely and over the longer term and can be used in a variety of clinical settings to aid management decisions.

ObjectivesThis study sought to investigate the role of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2)-IIA in cardiovascular disease.BackgroundHigher circulating levels of sPLA2-IIA mass or sPLA2 enzyme activity have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, it is not clear if this association is causal. A recent phase III clinical trial of an sPLA2 inhibitor (varespladib) was stopped prematurely for lack of efficacy.MethodsWe conducted a Mendelian randomization meta-analysis of 19 general population studies (8,021 incident, 7,513 prevalent major vascular events [MVE] in 74,683 individuals) and 10 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cohorts (2,520 recurrent MVE in 18,355 individuals) using rs11573156, a variant in PLA2G2A encoding the sPLA2-IIA isoenzyme, as an instrumental variable.ResultsPLA2G2A rs11573156 C allele associated with lower circulating sPLA2-IIA mass (38% to 44%) and sPLA2 enzyme activity (3% to 23%) per C allele. The odds ratio (OR) for MVE per rs11573156 C allele was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98 to 1.06) in general populations and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.03) in ACS cohorts. In the general population studies, the OR derived from the genetic instrumental variable analysis for MVE for a 1-log unit lower sPLA2-IIA mass was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96 to 1.13), and differed from the non-genetic observational estimate (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.79). In the ACS cohorts, both the genetic instrumental variable and observational ORs showed a null association with MVE. Instrumental variable analysis failed to show associations between sPLA2 enzyme activity and MVE.ConclusionsReducing sPLA2-IIA mass is unlikely to be a useful therapeutic goal for preventing cardiovascular events.

A single measurement of plasma sPLA2 activity at the time of enrollment provides strong independent information to predict recurrent events in patients with ACS.

BackgroundPreclinical data suggest that an acute inflammatory response following myocardial infarction (MI) accelerates systemic atherosclerosis. Using combined positron emission and computed tomography, we investigated whether this phenomenon occurs in humans.Methods and ResultsOverall, 40 patients with MI and 40 with stable angina underwent thoracic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose combined positron emission and computed tomography scan. Radiotracer uptake was measured in aortic atheroma and nonvascular tissue (paraspinal muscle). In 1003 patients enrolled in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events, we assessed whether infarct size predicted early (≤30 days) and late (>30 days) recurrent coronary events. Compared with patients with stable angina, patients with MI had higher aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (tissue-to-background ratio 2.15±0.30 versus 1.84±0.18, P<0.0001) and plasma C-reactive protein concentrations (6.50 [2.00 to 12.75] versus 2.00 [0.50 to 4.00] mg/dL, P=0.0005) despite having similar aortic (P=0.12) and less coronary (P=0.006) atherosclerotic burden and similar paraspinal muscular 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (P=0.52). Patients with ST-segment elevation MI had larger infarcts (peak plasma troponin 32 300 [10 200 to >50 000] versus 3800 [1000 to 9200] ng/L, P<0.0001) and greater aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (2.24±0.32 versus 2.02±0.21, P=0.03) than those with non–ST-segment elevation MI. Peak plasma troponin concentrations correlated with aortic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake (r=0.43, P=0.01) and, on multivariate analysis, independently predicted early (tertile 3 versus tertile 1: relative risk 4.40 [95% CI 1.90 to 10.19], P=0.001), but not late, recurrent MI.ConclusionsThe presence and extent of MI is associated with increased aortic atherosclerotic inflammation and early recurrent MI. This finding supports the hypothesis that acute MI exacerbates systemic atherosclerotic inflammation and remote plaque destabilization: MI begets MI.Clinical Trial RegistrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01749254.