BackgroundRisk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain.MethodsWe undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19.ResultsWe recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0–30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use.ConclusionsAfter rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a novel population-level stressor. As such, it is important to examine pandemic-related changes in mental health and to identify which individuals are at greatest risk of worsening symptoms.Methods: Online questionnaires were administered to 34,465 individuals in the UK, recruited from existing cohorts or via social media. Around one third (n = 12,718) with prior diagnoses of depression or anxiety completed pre-pandemic mental health assessments, allowing prospective investigation of symptom change. We examined changes in depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms using prospective, retrospective and global ratings of change assessments. We also examined the effect of key risk factors on changes in symptoms. Research in contextEvidence before this study We conducted a literature search (PubMed, Scopus) with the terms "mental*" or "psychiatr*" and "covid*" or "coronavirus" published before 8th February 2021. This resulted in 4,573 unique references, but only 15 longitudinal studies examining changes in symptoms of mental health conditions from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results to date are mixed. Some studies found increases in mental distress, some found increases in either depression or anxiety, and others saw no observable change in symptoms.Examining individual-level risk factors, heightened vulnerability to worsening mental health during the pandemic has been demonstrated among young people, females, individuals with lower incomes/financial problems and among health care or key workers. Only one previous study used a large sample with prior mental health diagnoses to examine changes in anxiety and depression. This study showed that having a prior mental health diagnosis was associated with higher levels of perceived worsening of mental health but, when examining actual prospectively measured symptoms, a prior mental health diagnosis was actually associated with a lower likelihood of symptom worsening, compared to no prior diagnosis. This discrepancy across measures requires further investigation in order to understand the nature of changing mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Added value of this studyThis study prospectively examined changes in symptoms of depression, anxiety and PTSD in a large UK-based sample of individuals with prior depression or anxiety. Analyses were supplemented with data from additional cohorts to examine individual difference risk factors with greater statistical power. Inclusion of both prospectively measured and retrospectively estimated changes in symptoms, as well as ratings of perceived change in mental health, allowed closer examination of discrepancies in subjective experience versus actual objective change in symptoms.people who are students or are unemployed. Additionally, discrepancies in estimated symptom change across prospective and retrospective measures highlight the importance of using prospectively collected data to examine longitudinal changes.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a novel population-level stressor. As such, it is important to examine pandemic-related changes in mental health and to identify which individuals are at greatest risk of worsening symptoms.Methods: Online questionnaires were administered to 34,465 individuals in the UK, recruited from existing cohorts or via social media. Around one third (n = 12,718) with prior diagnoses of depression or anxiety completed pre-pandemic mental health assessments, allowing prospective investigation of symptom change. We examined changes in depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms using prospective, retrospective and global ratings of change assessments. We also examined the effect of key risk factors on changes in symptoms.Outcomes: Prospective analyses showed small decreases in depression (PHQ-9: - .43 points) and anxiety symptoms (GAD-7: -.33 points), and increases in PTSD symptoms (PCL-6: .22 points). Conversely, retrospective analyses demonstrated large significant increases in depression (2.40 points) and anxiety symptoms (1.97 points) and 55% reported worsening mental health since the beginning of the pandemic on a global change rating. Using both prospective and retrospective symptom measures, regression analyses demonstrated that worsening depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms were associated with i) prior mental health diagnoses, ii) female gender; iii) young age, and iv) unemployed or student status.Interpretation: We highlight the effect of prior mental health diagnoses on worsening mental health during the pandemic and confirm previously-reported sociodemographic risk factors. Discrepancies between prospective and retrospective measures of changes in mental health may be related to recall bias underestimating prior symptom severity.

Background: Generalized anxiety and depression are extremely prevalent and debilitating. There is evidence for age and sex variability in symptoms of depression, but despite comorbidity it is unclear whether this extends to anxiety symptomatology. Studies using questionnaire sum scores typically fail to address this phenotypic complexity. Method: We conducted exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses on Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) items to identify latent factors of anxiety and depression in participants from the Genetic Links to Anxiety and Depression Study (N = 35,637; 16-93 years). We assessed ageand sex-related variability in latent factors and individual symptoms using multiple logistic regression. Results: Four factors of mood, worry, motor, and somatic symptoms were identified (comparative fit index [CFI] = 0.99, Tucker-Lewis Index [TLI] = 0.99, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.07, standardized root mean square residuals [SRMR] = 0.04). Symptoms of irritability (odds ratio [OR] = 0.81) were most strongly associated with younger age, and sleep change (OR = 1.14) with older age.Males were more likely to report mood and motor symptoms (p < .001) and females to report somatic symptoms (p < .001). Conclusion:Significant age and sex variability suggest that classic diagnostic criteria reflect the presentation most commonly seen in younger males. This study provides avenues for diagnostic adaptation and factor-specific interventions.