Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, can spread through human populations by multiple transmission pathways. Today, most human plague cases are bubonic, caused by spillover of infected fleas from rodent epizootics, or pneumonic, caused by inhalation of infectious droplets. However, little is known about the historical spread of plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic (14-19th centuries), including the Black Death, which led to high mortality and recurrent epidemics for hundreds of years. Several studies have suggested that human ectoparasite vectors, such as human fleas (Pulex irritans) or body lice (Pediculus humanus humanus), caused the rapidly spreading epidemics. Here, we describe a compartmental model for plague transmission by a human ectoparasite vector. Using Bayesian inference, we found that this model fits mortality curves from nine outbreaks in Europe better than models for pneumonic or rodent transmission. Our results support that human ectoparasites were primary vectors for plague during the Second Pandemic, including the Black Death (1346-1353), ultimately challenging the assumption that plague in Europe was predominantly spread by rats.

Plague has a long history on the European continent, with evidence of the disease dating back to the Stone Age. Plague epidemics in Europe during the First and Second Pandemics, including the Black Death, are infamous for their widespread mortality and lasting social and economic impact. Yet, Europe still experienced plague outbreaks during the Third Pandemic, which began in China and spread globally at the end of the nineteenth century. The digitization of international records of notifiable diseases, including plague, has enabled us to retrace the introductions of the disease to Europe from the earliest reported cases in 1899, to its disappearance in the 1940s. Using supplemental literature, we summarize the potential sources of plague in Europe and the transmission of the disease, including the role of rats. Finally, we discuss the international efforts aimed at prevention and intervention measures, namely improved hygiene and sanitation, that ultimately led to the disappearance of plague in Europe.

Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.

Plague remains a threat to public health and is considered as a re-emerging infectious disease today. Rodents play an important role as major hosts in plague persistence and driving plague outbreaks in natural foci; however, few studies have tested the association between host diversity in ecosystems and human plague risk. Here we use zero-inflated generalized additive models to examine the association of species richness with human plague presence (where plague outbreaks could occur) and intensity (the average number of annual human cases when they occurred) in China during the Third Pandemic. We also account for transportation network density, annual precipitation levels and human population size. We found rodent species richness, particularly of rodent plague hosts, is positively associated with the presence of human plague. Further investigation shows that species richness of both wild and commensal rodent plague hosts are positively correlated with the presence, but only the latter correlated with the intensity. Our results indicated a positive relationship between rodent diversity and human plague, which may provide suggestions for the plague surveillance system.

In 2019, it was estimated that more than 50 million captive Atlantic salmon in Norway died in the final stage of their production in marine cages. This mortality represents a significant economic loss for producers and a need to improve welfare for farmed salmon. Single adverse events, such as algal blooms or infectious disease outbreaks, can explain mass mortality in salmon cages. However, little is known about the production, health, or environmental factors that contribute to their baseline mortality during the sea phase. Here we conducted a retrospective study including 1627 Atlantic salmon cohorts put to sea in 2014–2019. We found that sea lice treatments were associated with Atlantic salmon mortality. In particular, the trend towards non-medicinal sea lice treatments, including thermal delousing, increases Atlantic salmon mortality in the same month the treatment is applied. There were differences in mortality among production zones. Stocking month and weight were other important factors, with the lowest mortality in smaller salmon stocked in August–October. Sea surface temperature and salinity also influenced Atlantic salmon mortality. Knowledge of what affects baseline mortality in Norwegian aquaculture can be used as part of syndromic surveillance and to inform salmon producers on farming practices that can reduce mortality.

On 3 August 1900, bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis) broke out in Glasgow for the first time during the Third Pandemic. The local sanitary authorities rigorously tracked the spread of the disease and they found that nearly all of the 35 cases could be linked by contact with a previous case. Despite trapping hundreds of rats in the area, there was no evidence of a rat epizootic and the investigators speculated that the outbreak could be due to human-to-human transmission of bubonic plague. Here we use a likelihood-based method to reconstruct transmission trees for the outbreak. From the description of the outbreak and the reconstructed trees, we infer several epidemiological parameters. We found that the estimated mean serial interval was 7.4–9.2 days and the mean effective reproduction number dropped below 1 after implementation of control measures. We also found a high rate of secondary transmissions within households and observations of transmissions from individuals who were not terminally septicaemic. Our results provide important insights into the epidemiology of a bubonic plague outbreak during the Third Pandemic in Europe.

Vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) belong to the most common causes of nosocomial infections worldwide. It has been reported that use of the glycopeptide growth promoter avoparcin selected for a significant livestock-reservoir of VRE in many European countries, including Norway. However, although avoparcin was banned as a feed-additive in 1995, VRE have for unknown reasons consistently been reported in samples from Norwegian broilers. When avoparcin was banned, broiler-feed was supplemented with the polyether ionophore narasin in order to control the diseases coccidiosis and the frequent sequela necrotic enteritis. A potential link between transferrable vancomycin resistance and reduced susceptibility to narasin was recently reported. The use of narasin as a feed additive was abolished by the Norwegian broiler industry in 2016 and since then, broilers have been reared without in-feed antibacterial supplements. In this study, we demonstrate that all VRE isolates from Norwegian broilers collected in 2006–2014 displayed reduced susceptibility to narasin. Surveillance data collected two years after the narasin abolishment show a significant reduction in VRE, below the detection limit of the surveillance method, and a concurrent marked reduction in Enterococcus faecium with reduced susceptibility to narasin. The significant decline of E. faecium with reduced susceptibility to these antimicrobial compounds also coincided with an increased focus on cleaning and disinfection between broiler flocks. Furthermore, data from a controlled in vivo experiment using Ross 308 broilers indicate that the proportion of E. faecium with reduced susceptibility to narasin was heavily reduced in broilers fed a narasin-free diet compared to a diet supplemented with narasin. Our results are consistent with that the abolishment of this feed additive, possibly in combination with the increased focus on cleaning and disinfection, has had a substantial impact on the occurrence of VRE in the Norwegian broiler population.

Emerging infectious diseases are one of the greatest public health challenges. Approximately three-quarters of these diseases are of animal origin. These diseases include classical zoonoses maintained in humans only via transmission from other vertebrates (e.g., rabies) and those initiated by a successful one-off zoonotic event (host-switch) in conjunction with efficient human-to-human transmission (e.g., H1N1 influenza). Here, we provide a systematic review, in conjunction with a meta-analysis and spatial risk modeling, to identify the major characteristics of past epidemics of animal origin and predict areas with high future disease emergence risk. Countermeasures against future pandemics of animal origin must focus on several key mechanisms. First, the eco-epidemiological contexts favoring spillover events must be clearly establish. Second, pathogen surveillance must be scaled up, particularly in taxa and/or eco-geographic areas with high disease emergence risk. Third, successful spillover risk must be mitigated through proactive strategies to interrupt animal-to-human transmission chains. Fourth, to decrease epidemic potential and prevent epidemics from becoming pandemics, improved source identification and real-time spatial tracking of diseases are crucial. Finally, because pandemics do not respect international borders, enhancing international collaboration is critical to improving preparedness and response.