Protected areas (PAs) represent a cornerstone of efforts to safeguard biodiversity, and if effective should reduce threats to biodiversity. We present the most comprehensive assessment of threats to terrestrial PAs, based on in situ data from 1,961 PAs across 149 countries, assessed by PA managers and local stakeholders. Unsustainable hunting was the most commonly reported threat and occurred in 61% of all PAs, followed by disturbance from recreational activities occurring in 55%, and natural system modifications from fire or its suppression in 49%. The number of reported threats was lower in PAs with greater remoteness, higher control of corruption, and lower human development scores. The main reported threats in developing countries were linked to overexploitation for resource extraction, while negative impacts from recreational activities dominated in developed countries. Our results show that many of the most serious threats to PAs are difficult to monitor with remote sensing, and highlight the importance of in situ threat data to inform the implementation of more effective biodiversity conservation in the global protected area estate. K E Y W O R D Sbiodiversity, conservation, cumulative link mixed model, IUCN threat classification scheme, managementThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Spatially explicit information on forest management at a global scale is critical for understanding the status of forests, for planning sustainable forest management and restoration, and conservation activities. Here, we produce the first reference data set and a prototype of a globally consistent forest management map with high spatial detail on the most prevalent forest management classes such as intact forests, managed forests with natural regeneration, planted forests, plantation forest (rotation up to 15 years), oil palm plantations, and agroforestry. We developed the reference dataset of 226 K unique locations through a series of expert and crowdsourcing campaigns using Geo-Wiki (https://www.geo-wiki.org/). We then combined the reference samples with time series from PROBA-V satellite imagery to create a global wall-to-wall map of forest management at a 100 m resolution for the year 2015, with forest management class accuracies ranging from 58% to 80%. The reference data set and the map present the status of forest ecosystems and can be used for investigating the value of forests for species, ecosystems and their services.

Forests are among the most species rich habitats and the way they are managed influences their capacity to protect biodiversity. To fulfill increasing wood demands in the future, planted and non-planted wood production will need to expand. While biodiversity assessments usually focus on the impacts of deforestation, the effects of wood harvest are mostly not considered, especially not in a spatially explicit manner. We present here a global approach to refine the representation of forest management through allocating future wood production to planted and non-planted forests. Wood production, following wood consumption projections of three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, was allocated using likelihood maps for planted and production forests. On a global scale, plantations for wood production were projected to increase by 45-65% and harvested area in non-planted forests by 1-17%. The biodiversity impacts of changes in wood production patterns were estimated by applying two commonly used indicators: (1) changes in species richness and (2) changes in habitat-suitable ranges of single species. The impact was analyzed using forest cover changes as reference. Our results show that, although forest cover changes have the largest impact on biodiversity, changes in wood production also have a significant effect. The magnitude of impacts caused by changes of wood production substantially differs by region and taxa. Given the importance of forest production changes in net negative emission pathways, more focus should be put on assessing the effects of future changes in wood production patterns as part of overall land use change impacts.

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Short-rotation woody plantations (SRWPs) play a major role in climate change mitigation and adaptation plans, because of their high yields of woody biomass and fast carbon storage. However, their benefits, trade-offs and growing-success are heavily location-dependent. Therefore, spatial data on the distribution of SRWPs are indispensable for assessing current distribution, trade-offs with other uses and potential contributions to climate mitigation. As current global datasets lack reliable information on SRWPs and full global mapping is difficult, we provide a consistent and systematic approach to estimate the spatial distribution of SRWPs in (sub-)tropical biomes under current and future climate. We combined three advanced methods (maximum entropy, random forest and multinomial regression) to evaluate spatially explicit probabilities of SRWPs. As inputs served a large empirical dataset on SRWP observations and 17 predictor variables, covering biophysical and socio-economic conditions. SRWP probabilities varied strongly between regions, and might not be feasible in major parts of (sub-)tropical biomes, challenging the feasibility of global mitigation plans that over-rely on tree plantations. Due to future climatic changes, SRWP probabilities decreased in many areas, particularly pronounced in higher emission scenarios. This indicates a negative feedback with higher emissions resulting in less mitigation potential. Less suitable land for SRWPs in the future could also result in fewer wood resources from these plantations, enhancing pressure on natural forests and hampering sustainability initiatives that use wood-based alternatives. Our results can help adding a more nuanced treatment of mitigation options and forest management in research on biodiversity and land use change.

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