Background and aimThe International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium met in 2018 to update its consensus recommendations for the management of individuals with increased risk of pancreatic cancer based on family history or germline mutation status (high-risk individuals).MethodsA modified Delphi approach was employed to reach consensus among a multidisciplinary group of experts who voted on consensus statements. Consensus was considered reached if ≥75% agreed or disagreed.ResultsConsensus was reached on 55 statements. The main goals of surveillance (to identify high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions and T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer) remained unchanged. Experts agreed that for those with familial risk, surveillance should start no earlier than age 50 or 10 years earlier than the youngest relative with pancreatic cancer, but were split on whether to start at age 50 or 55. Germline ATM mutation carriers with one affected first-degree relative are now considered eligible for surveillance. Experts agreed that preferred surveillance tests are endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, but no consensus was reached on how to alternate these modalities. Annual surveillance is recommended in the absence of concerning lesions. Main areas of disagreement included if and how surveillance should be performed for hereditary pancreatitis, and the management of indeterminate lesions.ConclusionsPancreatic surveillance is recommended for selected high-risk individuals to detect early pancreatic cancer and its high-grade precursors, but should be performed in a research setting by multidisciplinary teams in centres with appropriate expertise. Until more evidence supporting these recommendations is available, the benefits, risks and costs of surveillance of pancreatic surveillance need additional evaluation.

ObjectiveWe aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals.DesignFrom 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit.Results366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1–32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001).ConclusionThe diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

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Summary Background Because most pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) will never become malignant, currently advocated long‐term surveillance is low‐yield for most individuals. Aim To develop a score chart identifying IPMNs at lowest risk of developing worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata. Methods We combined prospectively maintained pancreatic cyst surveillance databases of three academic institutions. Patients were included if they had a presumed side‐branch IPMN, without worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata at baseline (as defined by the 2012 international Fukuoka guidelines), and were followed ≥ 12 months. The endpoint was development of one or more worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata during follow‐up. We created a multivariable prediction model using Cox‐proportional logistic regression analysis and performed an internal‐external validation. Results 875 patients were included. After a mean follow‐up of 50 months (range 12‐157), 116 (13%) patients developed worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata. The final model included cyst size (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.09‐1.15), cyst multifocality (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.01‐2.18), ever having smoked (HR 1.40, 95% CI 0.95‐2.04), history of acute pancreatitis (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.21‐3.55), and history of extrapancreatic malignancy (HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.91‐1.97). After validation, the model had good discriminative ability (C‐statistic 0.72 in the Mayo cohort, 0.71 in the Columbia cohort, 0.64 in the Erasmus cohort). Conclusion In presumed side branch IPMNs without worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata at baseline, the Dutch‐American Risk stratification Tool (DART‐1) successfully identifies pancreatic lesions at low risk of developing worrisome features or high‐risk stigmata.