Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem’s systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.

Summary1. Many ecosystems suffer systemwide outbreaks of damaging species propagating from primary outbreak sites. Connectivity patterns can identify parts of the ecosystem that help turn local outbreaks into a systemwide contagion through a series of transmission events. Here, we show that patterns of larval connectivity among reefs can help explain periodic crown-ofthorns starfish (COTS) epidemics across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). 2. We simulated potential dispersal of COTS larvae to obtain a connectivity network of coral reefs across the entire GBR. Network analysis revealed areas of high local connectivity where any outbreaks could be amplified locally, as well as those areas with potential to cause largescale epidemics with ecosystem-wide impacts. 3. We find that the regions where COTS epidemics are known to originate are predictable from their high local and systemwide connectivity. Extensive larval exchanges among reef clusters in these regions can start a chain reaction of COTS population build-up. The same regions also have high potential to reach and affect other parts of the GBR, thereby maximizing the likelihood that any outbreaks would eventually propagate throughout the ecosystem. 4. Hydrodynamic properties and geography of the GBR make it vulnerable to COTS epidemics. Using network analysis to identify regions with high-risk high-impact sources could help control these devastating events in future. 5. Synthesis and applications. The observed centre of origin for COTS epidemics (the Cooktown-Cairns region) can be predicted from its elevated short-and long-range levels of larval connectivity. Connectivity analysis of per-reef risks provides spatially explicit targets to guide surveillance and control measures that might help curtail COTS epidemics through prioritization of highly connected reefs. The analytical approach developed here for COTS connectivity can also be applied to identify well-connected patches and regions in other interconnected ecological systems.

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

Cumulative impacts assessments on marine ecosystems have been hindered by the difficulty of collecting environmental data and identifying drivers of community dynamics beyond local scales. On coral reefs, an additional challenge is to disentangle the relative influence of multiple drivers that operate at different stages of coral ontogeny. We integrated coral life history, population dynamics, and spatially explicit environmental drivers to assess the relative and cumulative impacts of multiple stressors across 2,300 km of the world's largest coral reef ecosystem, Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Using literature data, we characterized relationships between coral life history processes (reproduction, larval dispersal, recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environmental variables. We then simulated coral demographics and stressor impacts at the organism (coral colony) level on >3,800 individual reefs linked by larval connectivity and exposed to temporally and spatially realistic regimes of acute (crownof-thorns starfish outbreaks, cyclones, and mass coral bleaching) and chronic (water-quality) stressors. Model simulations produced a credible reconstruction of recent (2008-2020) coral trajectories consistent with monitoring observations, while estimating the impacts of each stressor at reef and regional scales. Overall, simulated coral populations declined by one-third across the GBR, from an average of ~29% to ~19% hard coral cover. By 2020, <20% of the GBR had coral cover higher than 30%, a status of reef health corroborated by scarce and sparsely distributed monitoring data. Reef-wide annual rates of coral mortality were driven by bleaching (48%) ahead of cyclones (41%) and starfish predation (11%). Beyond the reconstructed status and trends, the model enabled the emergence of complex interactions that compound the effects of multiple stressors while promoting a mechanistic understanding of coral cover dynamics. Drivers of coral cover growth were identified; notably, water quality (suspended sediments) was estimated to delay recovery for at least 25% of inshore reefs. Standardized rates of coral loss and recovery allowed the integration of all cumulative impacts to determine the equilibrium cover for each reef. This metric, combined with maps of impacts, recovery potential, water-quality thresholds, and reef state metrics, facilitates strategic spatial planning and resilience-based management across the GBR.

Hyperserotonemia is the most consistent serotonin-related finding in autism. The basis of this phenomenon, and its relationship to the central serotonergic dysfunction remains unclear. Platelet serotonin level (PSL) in 53 autistic adults and 45 healthy controls was measured. Mean PSL in autistic group (75.7 +/- 37.4 ng/microL) was significantly higher than the control sample (59.2 +/- 16.2 ng/microL) due to a presence of hyperserotonemic subjects which comprised 32% of the patients. PSL of autistic subjects did not correlate with the severity of symptoms, as measured by total CARS score, or the degree of mental retardation. However, significant negative relationship was observed between PSL and speech development, indicating the relationship between the peripheral 5HT concentrations and verbal abilities in autistic subjects.

The decline of coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has largely been attributed to the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, temperature-induced coral bleaching, and predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS). In such a complex system, the effectiveness of any management intervention will become apparent only over decadal time scales. Systems modeling approaches are therefore essential to formulating and testing alternative management strategies. For a network of reefs, we developed a metacommunity model that incorporated the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, coral bleaching, predation, and competition between corals. We then tested the response of coral cover to management interventions including catchment restoration to reduce discharge onto the reef during cyclone-induced flood events and enhanced protection of trophic networks supporting predation of CoTS. Model results showed good agreement with long-term monitoring of the GBR, including cyclical outbreaks of CoTS driven by predator-prey dynamics on the network of reefs. Testing of intervention strategies showed that catchment restoration would likely improve coral cover. However, strategies that combined catchment restoration with enhanced CoTS predation were far more effective than catchment restoration alone.

Coral reef monitoring programmes exist in all regions of the world, recording reef attributes such as coral cover, fish biomass and macroalgal cover. Given the cost of such monitoring programs, and the degraded state of many of the world's reefs, understanding how reef monitoring data can be used to shape management decisions for coral reefs is a high priority. However, there is no general guide to understanding the ecological implications of the data in a format that can trigger a management response. We attempt to provide such a guide for interpreting the temporal trends in 41 coral reef monitoring attributes, recorded by seven of the largest reef monitoring programmes. We show that only a small subset of these attributes is required to identify the stressors that have impacted a reef (i.e. provide a diagnosis), as well as to estimate the likely recovery potential (prognosis). Two of the most useful indicators, turf algal canopy height and coral colony growth rate are not commonly measured, and we strongly recommend their inclusion in reef monitoring. The diagnosis and prognosis system that we have developed may help guide management actions and provides a foundation for further development as biological and ecological insights continue to grow.

Ecosystems today increasingly suffer invasions by multiple invasive species. Complex interactions between invasive species can have different fitness implications for each invader, which can in turn determine the future progression of their invasions and result in differential impacts on native species and ecosystems. To this end, through pairwise and group scale experiments, we examined possible interaction outcomes, competition effects and their potential fitness implications for two widespread invasive species of crayfish that increasingly co-occur in freshwater ecosystems of Europe (Pacifastacus leniusulus and Orconectes limosus). In all trials, P. leniusculus demonstrated the potential to outcompete O. limosus in both staged encounters and direct resource competition, being more likely to win heterospecific agonistic encounters and to acquire shelters at a higher rate. Observed dyadic dominance was translated to a broader social context of groupscale experiments, in which dominance of P. leniusculus was further strengthened by size differential between species. O. limosus was not able to compensate for competitive pressure by the dominant P. leniusculus and suffered wet weight loss and more frequent injuries in the presence of P. leniusculus. While both species are detrimental to native ecosystems, the ability of P. leniusculus to withstand competition pressure from another successful invasive species underscores its potential to establish dominant populations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding interspecies competition in prioritizing potential management activities or control efforts in contact zones.