Future technologies and systemic innovation are critical for the profound transformation the food system needs. These innovations range from food production, land use and emissions, all the way to improved diets and waste management. Here, we identify these technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable food system. We argue that the speed of innovation could be significantly increased with the appropriate incentives, regulations and social license. These, in turn, require constructive stakeholder dialogue and clear transition pathways. Main To date, the future sustainability of food systems, the role of changing diets, reducing waste and increasing agricultural productivity have been mainly studied through the lens of existing technologies. Regarding the latter, for example, a common research question concerns what level of yield gain could be achieved through new crop varieties, livestock breeds, animal feeds, or changes in farming practices and the diffusion of technologies such as irrigation and improved management 7-13. Yet, as studies have shown, even with wide adoption of existing agricultural technologies,

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Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi‐arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long‐term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year‐to‐year) and intra‐annual (month‐to‐month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long‐term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.

Pig production in peri-urban smallholder value chains in Uganda is severely constrained by impact of disease, particularly African swine fever (ASF), and the economic consequences of an inefficient pig value chain. Interventions in the form of biosecurity to control ASF disease outbreaks and pig business hub models to better link smallholder farmers to pig markets have the potential to address the constraints. However, there is a dearth of evidence of the effects of the interventions on performance and distribution of outcomes along the pig value chain. An ex-ante impact assessment utilising System Dynamics model was used to assess the impact of the interventions in peri-urban pig value chains in Masaka district. The results showed that although implementation of biosecurity interventions results in reduction of ASF outbreaks, it also leads to a 6.3% reduction in farmer profit margins per year but more than 7% increase in other value chain actors' margins. The pig business hub intervention alone results in positive margins for all value chain actors but minimal reduction in ASF outbreaks. When biosecurity and the pig business hub interventions are implemented together, the interaction effects of the interventions result in positive outcomes for both the control of ASF and improvement in farmers' margins. Farmers may therefore be unwilling to adopt biosecurity practices if implemented alone to control ASF outbreaks unless there is a corresponding financial incentive to compensate for the high costs. This has implications for policy or developing institutions to facilitate cost sharing arrangement among chain actors and/or third party subsidy to provide incentives for producers to adopt biosecurity measures.

An empirical evaluation of policy options for inclusive dairy value chain development in Nicaragua: A system dynamics approach The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) believes that open access contributes to its mission of reducing hunger and poverty, and improving human nutrition in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture. CIAT is committed to creating and sharing knowledge and information openly and globally. We do this through collaborative research as well as through the open sharing of our data, tools, and publications.

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This paper examines ex-ante impacts of two policy interventions that improve productivity of local-breed cows through artificial insemination (AI) and producers’ access to distant markets through a dairy market hub. The majority of cattle in Kilosa district in Tanzania are local low productivity breeds kept by smallholders and agro-pastoralists. Milk production is seasonal, which constrains producers’ access to distant urban markets, constrains producers’ incomes and restricts profitability in dairy processing. We developed and evaluated an integrated system dynamics (SD) simulation model that captures many relevant feedbacks between the biological dynamics of dairy cattle production, the economics of milk market access, and the impacts of rainfall as an environmental factor. Our analysis indicated that in the short (1 year) and medium (5-year) term, policy interventions have a negative effect on producers’ income due to high AI costs. However, in the long term (5+ years), producers’ income from dairy cattle activities markedly increases (by, on average, 7% per year). The results show the potential for upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain in Kilosa, but achievement of this result may require financial support to producers in the initial stages (first 5 years) of the interventions, particularly to offset AI costs, as well as additional consideration of post-farm value chain costs. Furthermore, institutional aspects of dairy market hub have substantial effects on trade-offs amongst performance measures (e.g. higher profit vs. milk consumption at producer's household) with gain in cumulative profit coming at the expense of a proportional and substantial reduction in home milk consumption.